UBS Trims Neurocrine Price Target to $137, Still Sees Upside Amid Biotech Volatility

UBS maintained a Buy rating on Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) but reduced its price target to $137 from $154, reflecting valuation adjustments in a turbulent biotech market.

While trimming the target, UBS remains bullish on the company’s prospects. The firm views Neurocrine as a strong commercial play in a sector increasingly favoring established revenue-generating names over early-stage development stories. The company’s key product, Ingrezza, continues to drive solid growth, while Crenessity’s launch adds a new growth lever.

Notably, Neurocrine faces no major regulatory catalysts for over a year, reducing headline risk and allowing the investment narrative to center on commercial performance and adoption trends.

UBS adjusted its valuation by applying a lower multiple (4.0x vs. 4.2x) to projected 2030 sales of $2.9 billion, citing recent sector-wide multiple compression in biotech. The lower target also reflects a modest increase in share count.

Despite the reduced price objective, UBS sees first-half 2025 as a more favorable setup for hedge fund interest, especially as the memory of past sell-offs—including a failed M4 trial and a disappointing Q4 update—fades and long-only funds begin to re-engage.

With Ingrezza production in Europe versus key competitor Austedo (made in the U.S.), UBS believes supply chain diversification could be a differentiator, especially amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.