Goldman Sachs Predicts a Modest Economic Outlook and Rate Cut Possibility in 2025

Goldman Sachs has highlighted that markets might be overlooking important lessons from 2019. The Wall Street bank suggested in a recent note that the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is unlikely to provide substantial new information. While the meeting may acknowledge stabilization in the labor market, it is expected to refrain from offering any clear guidance on the March meeting or the schedule for future rate adjustments.

Inflation Decline and Potential for Rate Cuts

Goldman Sachs strategists believe that the FOMC's statement might provide insights into whether the continued decline in inflation could open the door to rate cuts. They expect the Committee to address concerns over whether the current level of the funds rate is still "meaningfully restrictive." According to Goldman Sachs, this is a key issue to monitor, as it may shape future monetary policy.

With inflation projected to continue its decline, the possibility of rate cuts in the future remains on the table. However, Goldman Sachs has noted that while rate cuts would be reasonable under current economic conditions, they are not yet imperative. Their analysis indicates that inflation should move toward the 2% target, providing room for gradual economic recovery in 2025.

The Influence of Tariffs on Economic Outlook

Another factor influencing the FOMC's decisions will be its approach to uncertainty surrounding tariff hikes. Goldman Sachs' base case assumes that tariffs will have only a modest impact on inflation, with an estimated increase of 0.3 percentage points. If this holds true, tariffs may not lead to significant inflationary pressures, thus leaving room for rate reductions.

The bank's optimism for the 2025 outlook centers on expectations of a modest recovery in labor market conditions, a decrease in year-on-year inflation rates, and GDP growth exceeding consensus forecasts. This economic improvement is expected to pave the way for continued stability in key financial metrics.

For insights into inflation trends, Sector Historical Overview and Key Metrics (TTM) provide a comprehensive analysis of key financial indicators, which can offer a better understanding of market movements influenced by tariff policies.