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Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) Reports Earnings Beat on EPS Despite Revenue Shortfall

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Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is a leading player in the renewable energy sector, specializing in the production of ethanol and other biofuels, with growing emphasis on carbon capture and low-carbon initiatives. On February 5, 2026, the company released its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results, showing a significant improvement in profitability driven by operational execution and tax credit benefits, though revenue came in below expectations.Here are three key insights from the report:
  • The company reported net income attributable to Green Plains of $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share (GAAP EPS), beating consensus analyst estimates (which ranged from around $0.02 to $0.07).
  • Revenue was $428.8 million, missing analyst estimates (approximately $532-$540 million).
  • Adjusted EBITDA improved sharply to $49.1 million for the quarter, compared to a negative $18.2 million in Q4 2024, reflecting better operational performance, cost discipline, record ethanol yields at several plants, and $27.7 million in value from 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credits (recorded as an income tax benefit).
The revenue shortfall was partly due to factors like the prior sale of the Obion plant and the discontinuation of third-party ethanol marketing, leading to lower top-line figures year-over-year (down ~26.6% from $584.0 million in Q4 2024). However, the strong bottom-line performance highlights progress in cost management and the early benefits of the company's carbon monetization strategy. The company also provided forward-looking color, targeting at least $188 million in adjusted EBITDA from carbon-related activities in 2026 (dependent on production volumes and carbon intensity factors), with carbon capture already operational at three Nebraska plants.
Financial ratios provide additional context on valuation and health:
  • The price-to-sales ratio is low, around 0.4, suggesting the stock trades at a discount relative to revenue.
  • Debt-to-equity is moderate 0.60, and the current ratio 1.79 indicates solid liquidity.
While Green Plains Inc. faced headwinds in revenue due to strategic changes and market conditions, the positive net income, EPS beat, and substantial Adjusted EBITDA improvement—bolstered by tax credits and operational gains—signal a meaningful turnaround and potential for growth in the renewable fuels and carbon sector. The company continues to advance capacity upgrades and carbon initiatives to drive future value.

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