Gucci Faces Uphill Battle as 2025 Approaches: UBS Analysts Skeptical

Gucci, the flagship brand of Kering (EPA:PRTP), remains a critical player in the luxury sector, yet its road to reclaiming leadership in the industry is riddled with challenges. Analysts at UBS have cast doubts on Gucci's ability to achieve a meaningful turnaround in 2025, citing both internal hurdles and external market pressures.

Financial Outlook for Gucci

• Sales Decline: Gucci is forecasted to face a 1% contraction in overall sales in 2025. Retail sales are expected to remain stagnant, but wholesale volumes are projected to decline, reflecting broader market sluggishness.
• EBIT Margin Pressure: The brand's EBIT margin is anticipated to drop to 19%, down from the previous year, driven by high costs associated with strategic revamps under new creative director Sabato de Sarno.

These projections underscore the financial strain of revitalization efforts, which are unlikely to yield immediate returns despite their necessity for long-term brand repositioning.

Market Dynamics

• China's Weak Luxury Demand: As one of Gucci's most vital markets, China is expected to see luxury sales drop by 3% in 2025, further compounding challenges for the brand.
• Resilient U.S. Market: On the other hand, the American market is set to grow by 5%, offering a glimmer of hope. However, this growth may not be sufficient to offset declining momentum in other regions.

Strategic Challenges

Gucci's dominance in Kering's portfolio, accounting for nearly 70% of the parent company's EBIT, amplifies the impact of its struggles on Kering's overall performance. Efforts to elevate Gucci's brand image and align with contemporary luxury trends have yet to drive sustained financial success.

Broader Industry Context

The luxury market is grappling with shifting consumer preferences and economic uncertainty. Brands that cater to aspirational consumers, like Gucci, face heightened competition and challenges in maintaining market share amid changing dynamics.

For a closer look at the financial health of industry leaders and their regional performance, explore the Key Metrics API and Sector Historical Overview API.

Conclusion

Gucci's challenges in 2025 reflect both internal and external complexities. While new leadership and strategic initiatives hold promise for the future, the immediate outlook suggests a year of modest performance, highlighting the need for patience as the brand navigates its path to recovery.