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How the U.S. Dollar Impacts Oil and Commodity Prices

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Image credit: Zbynek Burival

A rising U.S. dollar often signals weaker oil prices, as dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for foreign buyers.

Key Market Trends

  • Oil Prices & the Dollar: A stronger dollar has weighed on energy prices, making imports more costly for global buyers.
  • Risk Sentiment: In uncertain markets, investors flock to the dollar as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on commodities.
  • Long-Term Correlations: UBS research finds that over 30 years, commodity-dollar relationships fluctuate significantly.

Commodity-Specific Trends

  • Crude Oil & Thermal Coal: Historically, these show a strong inverse relationship with the dollar.
  • U.S. Natural Gas: Unlike crude, natural gas is largely uncorrelated with the dollar, as domestic supply and demand play a bigger role.

Investment Insights

For real-time commodity tracking, investors can use:

Final Thoughts

While short-term movements follow clear patterns, long-term commodity-dollar dynamics evolve, making it essential to track market trends, global demand, and risk sentiment.

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