Investors Eye Long‑Term Drivers, Not Just Q2 Guide, Ahead of Nvidia Earnings

As Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) prepares to unveil its Q2 results on Wednesday, Mizuho strategists note that long‑term momentum, particularly around Blackwell and China initiatives, will carry more weight with investors than the near‑term guide.

Why July Guidance Carries Less Clout

“The buyside consensus is that July‑quarter guidance matters far less than usual, given the expected hit from lost H20 revenue in China,” Mizuho writes. With H20 sales effectively suspended, analysts and funds are looking past any shortfall in the next quarter.

What Will Move the Stock

Instead of Q2 numbers, the focus will be on management's commentary regarding:

• Blackwell GB200 Rack Ramp: Clarity on production volumes and customer deployment timelines could validate sustained server‑farm expansion.

• China GPU Launches: Progress on the B20 GPU as an H20 replacement—and any early revenues—will be key to offsetting export‑control losses.

• Margin Trajectory: Confirmation that gross margins can rebound toward the mid‑70% range over the next few quarters will underpin profitability forecasts.

Valuation Setup: “Catch‑Up Trade” Opportunity

Despite a 23% rally since April 1, Nvidia shares trade at roughly the same levels as mid‑June last year, making it a potential “catch‑up trade” if management can beat outlook expectations on any of the above fronts. Investors tracking evolving analyst sentiment can see NVDA's current street consensus—$675 price target—via FMP's Price Target Summary API.

Risk‑Reward Balance into the Print

Mizuho cautions that the stock, now flirting with the upper $130 range, faces a tougher setup compared with the $100-110 levels earlier this year. Yet, as they put it:

“Gun to head, I would rather be long vs. short the stock today into the print.”

Investors can also monitor recent broker rating changes—including any shifts around Nvidia—through the Up‑Down Grades by Company API to gauge which houses are turning more bullish or cautious as earnings approach.

With Q2 guidance largely baked in, the true inflection point for Nvidia's share performance will hinge on CEO Jensen Huang and CFO's narrative around Blackwell scale‑up, China revenue recovery, and margin normalization—setting the tone for the AI hardware cycle well into 2025 and beyond.