JPMorgan Forecasts Volatility in Base and Precious Metals Markets for 2025

JPMorgan analysts predict a turbulent year ahead for metals markets, with initial weakness due to U.S. tariff concerns on Chinese goods, followed by a robust recovery as Chinese economic stimulus measures take effect. This two-phase outlook encompasses both base and precious metals, offering opportunities for investors amid potential market volatility.

Base Metals: A Two-Phase Outlook

• Short-Term Weakness:
  Early 2025 may see downward pressure on base metal prices due to tariff uncertainties and a weakened Chinese yuan. Analysts highlight that investor sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions loom over global trade.

• Recovery Expected in Q2:
  From the second quarter onwards, stronger Chinese stimulus and improving valuations are anticipated to fuel a recovery:

  • Copper: Projected to hit $10,400 per metric ton by the end of 2025.
  • Aluminum: Expected to rise to $2,850 per metric ton.
  • Zinc: Prices are likely to stabilize, reflecting balanced market dynamics.
  • Nickel: May face continued pressure, with prices around $16,000/mt, largely due to oversupply.

Precious Metals: Shining Bright in 2025

JPMorgan's forecasts for precious metals paint a bullish picture, driven by market stabilization and supply constraints:

• Gold: Anticipated to surge to $3,000 per ounce, supported by its safe-haven status amid economic uncertainties.
• Silver: Expected to reach $38 per ounce, benefiting from industrial demand and investor optimism.
• Platinum: Forecasted to rally to $1,200 per ounce, driven by supply limitations and strong demand.

Iron Ore: Gradual Strengthening

JPMorgan points to improving fundamentals in the iron ore market, underpinned by:

• Chinese Steel Demand: A rebound in output and declining inventories are expected to push prices to $100 per ton in 2025.
• Long-Term Outlook: Prices are likely to moderate to $80 per ton due to incremental supply increases from major producers like Vale.

Risks to Watch

Key risks that could influence the forecast include:

• The implementation and scale of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
• The timing and magnitude of Chinese economic stimulus measures.
• Changes in global supply dynamics, particularly from major mining firms.

Relevant APIs for Metals Market Analysis

• Commodity Prices API: Track live and historical prices for base and precious metals.
• Industry P/E Ratio API: Evaluate the performance of industries affected by commodity price fluctuations, such as mining and manufacturing.

Conclusion

JPMorgan's outlook for 2025 highlights both challenges and opportunities for metals investors. While geopolitical tensions and tariff policies could dampen sentiment in the short term, robust recovery driven by Chinese stimulus and supply-demand dynamics sets the stage for a potentially profitable year. Investors should remain vigilant and leverage market insights to navigate this complex environment effectively.