Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA): Downgrade Amid Execution Risks

• Bank of America Action:

  • Downgraded Tesla to Neutral from Buy but raised the price target to $490 (from $400).
  • Cited high execution risks in achieving long-term goals across autos, robotaxis, energy, and Optimus humanoid robot segments.

• Robotaxi Opportunity:

  • Accounts for 50% of Tesla's valuation, with a potential $420B market in the U.S. and $800B globally.
  • Initial rollout in 2025, starting with Tesla-owned fleets, offering cost advantages over rivals like Uber and Lyft.

• FSD Technology:

  • Estimated value: $480 billion.
  • Expected adoption: 23 million vehicles by 2030, expanding to 75 million by 2040, with substantial EBIT contributions.

• Catalysts to Watch:

  • Low-cost model launch (early 2025).
  • Robotaxi rollout (mid-2025).
  • Shanghai Megapack production ramp-up (Q1 2025).

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD): Downgrade on AI Challenges

• HSBC Action:

  • Downgraded AMD to Reduce from Buy, with a price target cut to $110 (from $200).
  • Highlighted weaker-than-expected AI GPU roadmap and competitive pressures from Nvidia.

• AI GPU Market Struggles:

  • Tepid demand for MI325 GPU and delays in rivaling Nvidia's NVL rack platform.
  • FY25 AI GPU revenue projection cut to $8.1 billion (down from $12.3 billion).

• Key Timelines:

  • MI350 chip launch expected in H2 2025.
  • Competitor-equivalent AI rack solution not anticipated until late 2025 or early 2026 with MI400 chip.

• Other Concerns:

  • Slowing client business momentum.
  • Limited growth potential in non-AI data center revenue for FY25.

Salesforce (NYSE: CRM): Needham's Top Pick for 2025

• Needham Action:

  • Added Salesforce to its Conviction List and increased the price target to $400 (from $375).
  • Confidence in Salesforce's Agentforce (AF) strategy as a game-changer for enterprise deals.

• Agentforce Impact:

  • Now involved in nearly 50% of enterprise-sized deals.
  • Pilot programs expected to ramp up deal sizes in H2 2025.

• AI Integration:

  • Salesforce rapidly hiring AI-focused sales reps, likely boosting bookings in the second half of the year.

• Valuation & Growth:

  • Trades at 24x FY26 free cash flow estimates with projected 20% FCF growth in FY26.
  • "Halo effect" from Agentforce to benefit related products like Mulesoft significantly.

Investment Considerations

1. Tesla:

   • Strong innovation pipeline but execution risks make the valuation less appealing.

2. AMD:

   • AI leadership challenges pose medium-term growth risks despite long-term potential in other markets.

3. Salesforce:

   • Promising growth driven by AI and Agentforce adoption makes it a compelling pick for 2025.

FMP API for further analysis

1. Advanced DCF API: Evaluate discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, particularly given its long-term projections..
Link to Advanced DCF

2. Historical Earnings: Review historical earnings data to monitor performance trends, especially in AI-related segments.
Link to Historical Earnings