Key Catalysts in AI & GPU Sectors: Morgan Stanley’s Outlook

Introduction

Morgan Stanley has identified several key events and product launches that could significantly impact the Generative AI (GenAI) and GPU sectors. These catalysts are expected to drive return on invested capital (ROIC) and long-term growth trajectories across major tech firms like Meta, Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI.

With AI adoption accelerating, investors are closely watching how new AI models, hardware advancements, and cloud integrations will shape the industry.

Major Upcoming AI & GPU Catalysts

1. Meta's LlamaCon (April 2024) & Meta Connect (September 2024)

📌 What to Expect:

• Meta (NASDAQ:META) is hosting LlamaCon, a developer-focused AI event

• Potential unveiling of Llama 4, with advanced agentic and reasoning capabilities

• Meta Connect (September) may introduce AI features for smart glasses (Orion) and other hardware

🔹 Why It Matters:
Meta's focus on open-source AI models and AI-driven hardware integration could solidify its position as a GenAI leader and drive AI adoption across consumer and enterprise applications.

2. Google Cloud Next (April 9-11, 2024) & Google I/O (May 2024)

📌 What to Expect:

• New AI integrations in Google Cloud (NASDAQ:GOOGL), especially after Google's acquisition of Wiz

• Security & AI functionalities in Google Cloud Platform (GCP) expected to improve

• Google I/O may introduce AI-powered search and ad monetization updates

🔹 Why It Matters:
With Wiz's security expertise, Google Cloud could become more competitive against AWS & Azure. AI-powered search & ad innovations may also impact Google's revenue model.

3. Nvidia's Blackwell GPU Rollout (2025)

📌 What to Expect:

• Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) ramping up production of Blackwell GPUs

• Estimated 705,000 unit shipments in Q1 FY2026 (April 2025), increasing to 1.35 million units by Q4 FY2026

🔹 Why It Matters:

• Alleviating chip shortages for AI giants like Meta, AWS, and Google Cloud

• Boosting AI model efficiency & training capabilities

• Strengthening Nvidia's dominance in AI hardware

4. OpenAI's GPT-5 Launch (Mid-to-Late 2025)

📌 What to Expect:

• Advanced reasoning, memory, and multimodal capabilities

• No confirmed date yet, but Morgan Stanley sees a potential 2025 release

🔹 Why It Matters:
A more advanced GPT model could revolutionize AI applications in business, content creation, and automation, strengthening Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) AI ecosystem.

Investor Takeaways: What This Means for the AI Sector

🔹 Tech Giants Are Racing to Lead AI Innovation - Meta, Google, and OpenAI are pushing AI boundaries, while Nvidia ensures they have the hardware to support growth.

🔹 AI Hardware & Cloud AI Are Key Growth Drivers - Nvidia's GPU rollout and Google Cloud's AI integrations will be pivotal.

🔹 The Next Big AI Model Could Be a Game-Changer - If GPT-5 delivers on expectations, it could significantly impact enterprise AI adoption.