Morgan Stanley Revises Rate Cut Expectations After Hawkish Fed Signals

Morgan Stanley has adjusted its outlook on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, signaling a more cautious approach following the Fed's hawkish December meeting. Analysts now predict fewer and delayed rate cuts in 2025, reflecting persistent concerns over inflation and broader economic shifts.

Key Revisions by Morgan Stanley

• No January Rate Cut: The bank no longer expects a 25 bps cut in January 2025.
• Gradual Cuts in 2025: Rate cuts of 25 bps are anticipated only in March and June.
• Higher Terminal Rate: The forecast for the terminal rate in 2026 has been increased to 2.6% from 2.4%.

Broader Market Impacts

• Peer Forecasts: Goldman Sachs echoed Morgan Stanley's sentiment earlier in the week, attributing the slowdown to "sticky inflation" and a resilient labor market.
• Market Sentiment: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in January rose to 91.1%, according to CME FedWatch, up significantly from the previous week's 75.4%.

Underlying Factors

• Economic Considerations:
  • The Fed's stance reflects the potential impacts of changes in trade, immigration, and fiscal policy on inflation.
  • Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious pace of rate cuts, underscoring persistent inflation risks and robust economic activity.

Data Insights for Investors

• Track policy shifts and market reactions via the Economics Calendar.
• Explore the impact on key sectors using the Sector P/E Ratio Overview.

Morgan Stanley's revised outlook aligns with broader market sentiment, highlighting a more challenging environment for aggressive monetary easing in 2025. This cautious tone will likely shape market strategies as inflation and policy uncertainties persist.