Barclays has lifted its price target on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to $200, up from $170, signaling growing optimism around the chipmaker's ability to capitalize on strong supply chain demand and AI-related momentum in the second half of 2025.

This new target implies a 38% upside from Nvidia's June 16 closing price of $144.69.

Supply Chain Insights Drive Forecast Upgrades

Following first-quarter earnings, Barclays' supply chain checks revealed a potential $2 billion revenue upside in July alone versus consensus estimates. As a result, the bank has revised its full-year Compute revenue forecast to $37 billion, up from $35.6 billion.

Although Blackwell chip production reached only 30,000 wafers per month—below Barclays' prior estimate of 40,000—the firm says utilization remains healthy, and outlooks for the second half are increasingly positive.

• Blackwell Ultra remains on track for mass production in Q3

• System sales expected to contribute 25% of July revenue and rise to 50% by October

• Gross margins may improve due to scale and product mix shift

Get Nvidia's Forward-Looking Valuation Insights:

• Price Target Summary: Updated analyst targets and consensus EPS tracking

• Revenue Product Segmentation: Detailed breakdown of Nvidia's revenue by chip categories, systems, and software

Valuation Outlook

Barclays' revised target is based on a 29x multiple applied to its 2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $6.86, up from $6.43. This upward revision reflects confidence in Nvidia's Compute and AI infrastructure dominance, despite near-term wafer constraints.

As demand for Blackwell systems and AI data center infrastructure continues to scale, Nvidia's growth narrative remains intact, with strong upside potential in the coming quarters.