Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid Geopolitical Concerns and OPEC+ Supply Decision

Oil prices ticked up on Tuesday as traders digested looming supply risks—most notably Iran's expected rejection of a U.S. nuclear deal—and weighed a slightly firmer dollar backdrop. Brent crude futures gained 12 cents (0.19%) to $64.75 a barrel by 06:27 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 20 cents (0.32%) to $62.72 a barrel.

Geopolitical Headwinds Drive Brent and WTI Gains

• Iran's Stance on Nuclear Talks: Tehran is set to reject the U.S. proposal that would have eased sanctions, keeping a major OPEC producer on the sidelines of any potential output relief.

• OPEC+ Production Plans: Early Monday, OPEC+ confirmed a 411,000 bpd supply increase in July—no larger than previous months—which disappointed those expecting a bigger ramp and led to net unwinding of bearish bets.

ING analysts noted that “with the worst fears not panning out, investors unwound their bearish positions built ahead of the weekend meeting.”

Dollar Dynamics and Global Trade Uncertainty

• Dollar Near Six‑Week Low: The dollar index remained weak as markets question President Trump's tariff agenda and its potential drag on U.S. growth. A softer dollar typically makes dollar‑denominated oil cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices.

• Tariff Concerns: Ongoing U.S.‑China tensions feed into broader risk aversion, bolstering oil's safe‑haven appeal despite mixed demand signals.

For real‑time oil price data via API, see:
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What to Watch This Week

1. U.S. Crude Inventories (Wednesday): Any surprise build or draw in weekly stockpiles can move WTI sharply.

2. OPEC+ Follow‑Up Comments: Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia and Russia on compliance and potential production tweaks.

3. Tariff Developments: Renewed tariff threats or de‑escalation between the U.S. and China may shift demand expectations for crude.

With supply risks from Iran's sanction status and a tepid OPEC+ output increase, oil markets remain alert to any fresh geopolitical or policy shocks. A modest dollar rebound could temper gains, but elevated tensions suggest that downside remains limited in the near term.