S&P 500 to Stay Range-Bound Amid Uncertainty, Says Morgan Stanley

Market Range Forecast: 5000-5500

Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer, Michael Wilson, expects the S&P 500 to remain trapped in a volatile range between 5000 and 5500, citing a complex mix of supportive and challenging market forces. While recent developments—such as the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and trade concessions—have temporarily reduced recession fears, deeper uncertainty continues to cap market upside.

Key Factors Behind the Outlook

1. Fed Reluctance to Ease

Wilson emphasized that the Federal Reserve's current stance limits equity momentum. With no immediate signs of monetary easing, investors may face headwinds despite improving trade sentiment.

“The equity market will likely remain in a wide trading range with high volatility until we have more certainty on the depth of the growth slowdown and the timing of a recovery,” Wilson said.

2. Trade Policy Fluidity

The administration's readiness to "course adjust" has been a positive signal, especially following the recent tariff pause. However, the unpredictability of policy shifts continues to cloud the broader outlook.

3. Rising Treasury Yields

Long-term Treasury yields have surged over 60 basis points, creating further tension in financial markets. These rising yields weigh on growth-sensitive sectors and suppress corporate confidence.

Earnings Outlook

Morgan Stanley has adjusted its earnings estimates to reflect the softer macro backdrop:

• 2025 EPS Base Case: Revised down to $257 from $271

• 2026 EPS Forecast: $281 (9% YoY growth)

• Mild Recession Scenario:

  • 2025 EPS: $240

  • 2026 EPS: $249

These downward revisions reflect growing caution amid high rates and softening demand.

What Could Shift the Market?

Bullish Catalysts:

• A dovish pivot by the Fed, especially in response to weak labor data or funding stress

• A substantial U.S.-China trade deal

• A decline in 10-year Treasury yields toward 4%, signaling improved financial conditions

Bearish Risks:

• Break below 5000 on the S&P 500 if:

  • 10-year yields spike above 5%

  • Labor markets show sharp weakness

• Corporate confidence erosion and continued earnings downgrades

Monitoring Market Conditions

Investors can use the Earnings Historical API to track past earnings surprises and trends, and the Sector Historical (Market Overview) API to gauge sector-level resilience across different market conditions. These insights are critical in navigating high-volatility environments and refining investment strategies.

Final Thoughts

Despite recent gains, Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance, warning that the equity markets may remain in flux until more concrete signals emerge around growth and policy. With risks and opportunities finely balanced, volatility is likely to persist—and investors should position accordingly.