Walmart (NYSE:WMT) shares tumbled more than 6% on Thursday after the retail giant projected a lower-than-expected sales outlook for its 2026 fiscal year. Despite strong holiday-season sales, concerns over inflation-hit consumers and macroeconomic uncertainties weighed on the stock.

Key Takeaways

• Weaker 2026 Sales Outlook: Walmart expects 3%-4% annual net sales growth, below analyst estimates of 4%.
• Stock Performance: Before the drop, Walmart stock had gained 15.6% YTD.
• Consumer Headwinds: Retail sales have softened amid higher inflation, economic uncertainty, and Trump's proposed tariffs.
• Mixed Q4 Results:
  • U.S. comparable sales (ex-fuel) rose 4.9%, beating 4.15% expectations.
  • Adjusted EPS came in at $0.66, slightly above estimates of $0.65.
  • The company flagged negative currency effects impacting earnings.

What's Driving Walmart's Outlook?

1. Inflationary Pressures: The latest hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data suggests that consumers may tighten discretionary spending.
2. Retail Sales Slowdown: A dip in monthly U.S. retail sales and declining consumer sentiment signals potential demand weakness.
3. Leap Year Impact: Walmart noted that lapping the 2024 leap year would be a headwind for growth.

How Walmart Weathered the Storm

• Despite supply chain disruptions, bad weather, and rising egg prices, Walmart outperformed in holiday sales.
• GLP-1 obesity drug demand has boosted revenue, particularly in its pharmacy segment.

Relevant Market Data APIs

📊 Market Most Active - Track Walmart's trading volume as investors react to earnings.
📉 Earnings Calendar - Stay ahead of key earnings reports for retail giants like Walmart.

Conclusion

While Walmart's strong Q4 showed resilience, its muted 2026 outlook raises questions about consumer spending trends in a challenging economic environment. Investors should closely watch U.S. retail sales data, inflation trends, and potential policy shifts affecting the retail sector.

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