Wells Fargo Sees Flat to Declining Consumer Loan Growth in 2025

CFO Forecast: “Muted” Consumer Lending Ahead

Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo told investors this week that U.S. consumer loan growth is likely to remain muted — and could even decline — for the rest of the year. Key takeaways:

• No large growth: “I wouldn't expect large growth on the consumer side in any way,” Santomassimo said.

• Commercial loans uncertain: Growth predictions there are harder amid ongoing tariff debates.

• Regulatory relief: This forecast came days after the Fed lifted a seven‑year, $1.95 trillion asset cap on Wells Fargo.

Why Consumer Loans Are Softening

Several factors weigh on retail lending:

• High interest rates: Elevated borrowing costs deter new mortgages, auto loans, and personal credit.

• Consumer caution: Households are prioritizing debt pay‑downs over new credit lines.

• Economic headwinds: Tariff‑driven cost pressures may squeeze disposable incomes.

Implications for Wells Fargo's Balance Sheet

A slowdown—or reversal—in consumer loans affects both revenue and asset composition:

• Interest income pressures: Fewer loans mean less net interest margin.

• Asset mix shift: Commercial and wealth‑management divisions may shoulder more growth expectations.

For a detailed view of how Wells Fargo's loan portfolio and asset structure have evolved, see the Balance Sheet Statements API, which breaks down loans, deposits, and equity over time.

Capital & Credit Metrics Under the Microscope

Flat loan growth can impact key banking ratios:

• Loan-to-deposit ratio: Signals liquidity management under slower origination.

• Non‑performing loan ratio: Tracks asset quality if stress rises.

• Tier 1 capital ratio: Reflects the bank's buffer against credit losses.

Investors can monitor these trends in real time via the Ratios TTM Statement Analysis API, which provides rolling 12‑month values for critical banking metrics.

Peer Perspective & Outlook

• JPMorgan's view: Jamie Dimon praised Wells Fargo for overcoming its asset cap, signaling strength in cost management.

• Strategic focus: CEO Charlie Scharf plans to drive growth in credit cards, wealth management, and investment banking to offset flat consumer lending.

• Policy watch: Any extension of the Fed's rate‑hiking pause, or tariff agreements, could modestly boost credit demand.