Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

AAON, Inc. (AAON)

$61.64

-0.82 (-1.31%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 21.82 | 61.64 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	405.23	433.95	469.33	514.55	534.52	572.94	614.13	658.28	705.60	756.33
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	57.99	54.86	97.93	128.81	61.18	96.60	103.54	110.98	118.96	127.51
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-41.71	-37.27	-37.17	-67.80	-55.36	-57.68	-61.82	-66.27	-71.03	-76.14
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	16.28	17.59	60.76	61.01	5.82	38.92	41.72	44.71	47.93	51.37

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 61.64
Beta	0.667
Diluted Shares Outstanding	53.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	15.07
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.989
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	3,311.85
Total Capital	3,311.85
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	405.23	433.95	469.33	514.55	534.52	572.94	614.13	658.28	705.60	756.33
Operating Cash Flow	57.99	54.86	97.93	128.81	61.18	96.60	103.54	110.98	118.96	127.51
Capital Expenditure	-41.71	-37.27	-37.17	-67.80	-55.36	-57.68	-61.82	-66.27	-71.03	-76.14
Free Cash Flow	16.28	17.59	60.76	61.01	5.82	38.92	41.72	44.71	47.93	51.37
WACC
PV LFCF						36.72	37.13	37.55	37.98	38.41
SUM PV LFCF										187.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.99
Free cash flow (t + 1)	52.40
Terminal Value	1,313.32
Present Value of Terminal Value	981.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,169.64
Net Debt	-2.86
Equity Value	1,172.50
Shares Outstanding	53.73
Equity Value Per Share	21.82