Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AAON, Inc. (AAON)

$54.335

-0.39 (-0.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12.50 | 54.335 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 405.23433.95469.33514.55534.52572.94614.13658.28705.60756.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 89.5073.5989.80127.6199.47116.41124.77133.74143.36153.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 74.4955.9467.03101.9769.0589.7196.16103.08110.49118.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 15.0117.6522.7725.6330.4226.6928.6130.6732.8735.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 30.411.9926.8079.022.8633.8836.3238.9341.7344.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 52.0160.2168.2052.0170.7874.0179.3385.0491.1597.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 70.7977.6173.6082.22130.27104.72112.25120.31128.96138.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.9710.6211.7612.4529.0217.7719.0520.4221.8823.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -41.71-37.27-37.17-67.80-55.36-57.68-61.82-66.27-71.03-76.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 54.335
Beta 0.697
Diluted Shares Outstanding 53.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.246
Total Debt -
Total Equity 2,919.36
Total Capital 2,919.36
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 405.23433.95469.33514.55534.52572.94614.13658.28705.60756.33
EBITDA 89.5073.5989.80127.6199.47116.41124.77133.74143.36153.67
EBIT 74.4955.9467.03101.9769.0589.7196.16103.08110.49118.43
Tax Rate 26.84%23.90%19.87%22.52%15.07%21.64%21.64%21.64%21.64%21.64%
EBIAT 54.5042.5753.7179.0158.6570.3075.3580.7786.5892.80
Depreciation 15.0117.6522.7725.6330.4226.6928.6130.6732.8735.24
Accounts Receivable --8.20-7.9916.19-18.77-3.23-5.32-5.70-6.11-6.55
Inventories --6.834.01-8.62-48.0525.55-7.53-8.07-8.65-9.27
Accounts Payable --0.351.140.6916.57-11.251.281.371.471.57
Capital Expenditure -41.71-37.27-37.17-67.80-55.36-57.68-61.82-66.27-71.03-76.14
UFCF 27.797.5836.4745.11-16.5550.3830.5732.7735.1237.65
WACC
PV UFCF 46.9826.5826.5626.5526.53
SUM PV UFCF 153.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.25
Free cash flow (t + 1) 38.40
Terminal Value 731.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 515.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 668.66
Net Debt -2.86
Equity Value 671.52
Shares Outstanding 53.73
Equity Value Per Share 12.50