Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AAON, Inc. (AAON)

$61.05

-0.53 (-0.86%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 17.12 | 61.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 433.95469.33514.55534.52573.13614.52658.91706.50757.54812.25
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 73.5989.80127.6199.47113.91122.14130.96140.42150.56161.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 55.9467.03101.9769.0585.8492.0498.69105.82113.46121.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.6522.7725.6330.4228.0730.1032.2734.6037.1039.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1.9926.8079.022.8617.6530.9033.1335.5238.0940.84
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 60.2168.2052.0170.78124.3390.2796.79103.78111.28119.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 77.6173.6082.22130.27164126.02135.12144.88155.34166.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.6211.7612.4529.0236.1923.4925.1927.0128.9631.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -37.27-37.17-67.80-55.36-57.37-61.52-65.96-70.72-75.83-81.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 61.05
Beta 0.693
Diluted Shares Outstanding 53.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.157
Total Debt -
Total Equity 3,280.15
Total Capital 3,280.15
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 433.95469.33514.55534.52573.13614.52658.91706.50757.54812.25
EBITDA 73.5989.80127.6199.47113.91122.14130.96140.42150.56161.44
EBIT 55.9467.03101.9769.0585.8492.0498.69105.82113.46121.65
Tax Rate 23.90%19.87%22.52%15.07%20.34%20.34%20.34%20.34%20.34%20.34%
EBIAT 42.5753.7179.0158.6568.3873.3278.6284.2990.3896.91
Depreciation 17.6522.7725.6330.4228.0730.1032.2734.6037.1039.78
Accounts Receivable --7.9916.19-18.77-53.5634.06-6.52-6.99-7.50-8.04
Inventories -4.01-8.62-48.05-33.7337.98-9.10-9.76-10.46-11.22
Accounts Payable -1.140.6916.577.17-12.701.701.821.952.09
Capital Expenditure -37.27-37.17-67.80-55.36-57.37-61.52-65.96-70.72-75.83-81.31
UFCF 22.9636.4745.11-16.55-41.04101.253133.2435.6438.22
WACC
PV UFCF -41.0495.3827.5127.7828.0628.34
SUM PV UFCF 207.08

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.16
Free cash flow (t + 1) 38.98
Terminal Value 937.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 694.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 902.05
Net Debt -17.65
Equity Value 919.69
Shares Outstanding 53.73
Equity Value Per Share 17.12