Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

$53.08

-0.37 (-0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -200.61 | 53.08 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 64,34164,65664,35585,249101,848115,078.57130,027.86146,919.13166,004.67187,569.51
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -4,784-5,452-2,3866,5953,478-1,938.89-2,190.76-2,475.36-2,796.92-3,160.25
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -842-828-823-1,169-1,319-1,503.95-1,699.32-1,920.08-2,169.50-2,451.33
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -5,626-6,280-3,2095,4262,159-3,442.85-3,890.09-4,395.43-4,966.42-5,611.58

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 53.08
Beta 0.763
Diluted Shares Outstanding 563
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.924
Total Debt 10,288
Total Equity 29,884.04
Total Capital 40,172.04
Debt Weighting 25.61
Equity Weighting 74.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 64,34164,65664,35585,249101,848115,078.57130,027.86146,919.13166,004.67187,569.51
Operating Cash Flow -4,784-5,452-2,3866,5953,478-1,938.89-2,190.76-2,475.36-2,796.92-3,160.25
Capital Expenditure -842-828-823-1,169-1,319-1,503.95-1,699.32-1,920.08-2,169.50-2,451.33
Free Cash Flow -5,626-6,280-3,2095,4262,159-3,442.85-3,890.09-4,395.43-4,966.42-5,611.58
WACC
PV LFCF -3,223.34-3,409.85-3,607.16-3,815.89-4,036.69
SUM PV LFCF -18,092.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) -5,723.81
Terminal Value -118,998.22
Present Value of Terminal Value -85,601.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -103,694.34
Net Debt 9,251
Equity Value -112,945.34
Shares Outstanding 563
Equity Value Per Share -200.61