Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

$76.61

+1.48 (+1.97%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 91.63 | 76.61 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	64,341	64,656	64,355	85,249	101,848	115,078.57	130,027.86	146,919.13	166,004.67	187,569.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,360	2,983	3,188	4,548	6,632	6,130.52	6,926.90	7,826.74	8,843.47	9,992.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,419	1,990	2,212	3,552	5,604	4,590.16	5,186.45	5,860.19	6,621.46	7,481.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	941	993	976	996	1,028	1,540.35	1,740.45	1,966.55	2,222.01	2,510.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2,003	852	666	943	10,047	3,783	4,274.43	4,829.70	5,457.10	6,166.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,844	5,206	4,984	5,771	4,926	7,681.96	8,679.88	9,807.44	11,081.48	12,521.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	8,813	9,170	11,713	14,481	14,771	17,853.38	20,172.62	22,793.15	25,754.09	29,099.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,545	3,746	4,474	6,388	7,803	7,689.61	8,688.53	9,817.22	11,092.52	12,533.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-842	-828	-823	-1,169	-1,319	-1,503.95	-1,699.32	-1,920.08	-2,169.50	-2,451.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 76.61
Beta	0.792
Diluted Shares Outstanding	563
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.06
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.120
Total Debt	9,180
Total Equity	43,131.43
Total Capital	52,311.43
Debt Weighting	17.55
Equity Weighting	82.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	64,341	64,656	64,355	85,249	101,848	115,078.57	130,027.86	146,919.13	166,004.67	187,569.51
EBITDA	3,360	2,983	3,188	4,548	6,632	6,130.52	6,926.90	7,826.74	8,843.47	9,992.29
EBIT	2,419	1,990	2,212	3,552	5,604	4,590.16	5,186.45	5,860.19	6,621.46	7,481.62
Tax Rate	12.14%	13.16%	5.89%	18.23%	17.06%	13.30%	13.30%	13.30%	13.30%	13.30%
EBIAT	2,125.43	1,728.09	2,081.61	2,904.43	4,647.69	3,979.78	4,496.78	5,080.93	5,740.97	6,486.75
Depreciation	941	993	976	996	1,028	1,540.35	1,740.45	1,966.55	2,222.01	2,510.66
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,362	222	-787	845	-2,755.96	-997.92	-1,127.56	-1,274.04	-1,439.54
Inventories	-	-357	-2,543	-2,768	-290	-3,082.38	-2,319.24	-2,620.53	-2,960.94	-3,345.59
Accounts Payable	-	201	728	1,914	1,415	-113.39	998.92	1,128.68	1,275.31	1,440.97
Capital Expenditure	-842	-828	-823	-1,169	-1,319	-1,503.95	-1,699.32	-1,920.08	-2,169.50	-2,451.33
UFCF	2,224.43	375.09	641.61	1,090.43	6,326.69	-1,935.54	2,219.65	2,508	2,833.80	3,201.92
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,817.41	1,956.98	2,076.24	2,202.78	2,337.02
SUM PV UFCF										6,755.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.50
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,265.96
Terminal Value	72,576.96
Present Value of Terminal Value	52,972.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	59,728.15
Net Debt	8,143
Equity Value	51,585.15
Shares Outstanding	563
Equity Value Per Share	91.63