Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)
$50.32
-0.69 (-1.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,799.98 | 4,937.34 | 4,493.63 | 4,588.93 | 6,914.99 | 7,722.03 | 8,623.27 | 9,629.70 | 10,753.58 | 12,008.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,840.37 | 3,105.68 | 2,130.38 | 3,693.82 | 5,170.96 | 5,015.60 | 5,600.97 | 6,254.66 | 6,984.64 | 7,799.82 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5,948.41 | -4,728.49 | -1,183.73 | -1,789.78 | -3,871.57 | -5,266.86 | -5,881.56 | -6,568 | -7,334.55 | -8,190.57 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3,108.04 | -1,622.81 | 946.66 | 1,904.04 | 1,299.39 | -251.27 | -280.59 | -313.34 | -349.91 | -390.75 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 50.32 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.005 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 149.01 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.57 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.845 |
| Total Debt | 46,668.18 |
| Total Equity | 7,497.98 |
| Total Capital | 54,166.16 |
| Debt Weighting | 86.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 13.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,799.98 | 4,937.34 | 4,493.63 | 4,588.93 | 6,914.99 | 7,722.03 | 8,623.27 | 9,629.70 | 10,753.58 | 12,008.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,840.37 | 3,105.68 | 2,130.38 | 3,693.82 | 5,170.96 | 5,015.60 | 5,600.97 | 6,254.66 | 6,984.64 | 7,799.82 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5,948.41 | -4,728.49 | -1,183.73 | -1,789.78 | -3,871.57 | -5,266.86 | -5,881.56 | -6,568 | -7,334.55 | -8,190.57 |
| Free Cash Flow | -3,108.04 | -1,622.81 | 946.66 | 1,904.04 | 1,299.39 | -251.27 | -280.59 | -313.34 | -349.91 | -390.75 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -239.53 | -254.99 | -271.45 | -288.97 | -307.62 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -1,362.57 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -398.56 |
| Terminal Value | -13,743.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -10,819.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -12,182.44 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 45,071.03 |
| Equity Value | -57,253.47 |
| Shares Outstanding | 149.01 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -384.24 |