Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)
$59.07
+0.95 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,799.98 | 4,937.34 | 4,493.63 | 4,588.93 | 6,914.99 | 7,722.03 | 8,623.27 | 9,629.70 | 10,753.58 | 12,008.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 4,025.17 | 4,284.55 | 2,577.80 | 4,131.44 | 1,499.67 | 5,246.66 | 5,859 | 6,542.80 | 7,306.41 | 8,159.14 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,333.78 | 2,608.43 | 932.43 | 2,393.51 | -890.14 | 2,494.02 | 2,785.09 | 3,110.14 | 3,473.13 | 3,878.48 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,691.39 | 1,676.12 | 1,645.37 | 1,737.93 | 2,389.81 | 2,752.64 | 3,073.90 | 3,432.66 | 3,833.28 | 4,280.67 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,204.02 | 1,121.40 | 1,248.77 | 1,728.79 | 1,597.15 | 2,105.89 | 2,351.67 | 2,626.14 | 2,932.63 | 3,274.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,402.74 | 1,601.17 | 1,876.33 | 4,038.23 | 3,502.70 | 3,738.42 | 4,174.74 | 4,661.97 | 5,206.07 | 5,813.67 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 30.97 | 3.16 | 15.93 | 16.27 | 24.52 | 27.38 | 30.58 | 34.15 | 38.13 | 42.58 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 556.81 | 494.46 | 492.78 | 1,202.59 | 812.08 | 1,089.29 | 1,216.42 | 1,358.39 | 1,516.92 | 1,693.96 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -5,948.41 | -4,728.49 | -1,183.73 | -1,789.78 | -3,871.57 | -5,266.86 | -5,881.56 | -6,568 | -7,334.55 | -8,190.57 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 59.07 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.995 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 149.01 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 27.57 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.109 |
Total Debt | 46,668.18 |
Total Equity | 8,801.78 |
Total Capital | 55,469.96 |
Debt Weighting | 84.13 |
Equity Weighting | 15.87 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,799.98 | 4,937.34 | 4,493.63 | 4,588.93 | 6,914.99 | 7,722.03 | 8,623.27 | 9,629.70 | 10,753.58 | 12,008.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4,025.17 | 4,284.55 | 2,577.80 | 4,131.44 | 1,499.67 | 5,246.66 | 5,859 | 6,542.80 | 7,306.41 | 8,159.14 |
EBIT | 2,333.78 | 2,608.43 | 932.43 | 2,393.51 | -890.14 | 2,494.02 | 2,785.09 | 3,110.14 | 3,473.13 | 3,878.48 |
Tax Rate | 11.76% | 14.54% | 5.10% | 12.84% | 27.57% | 14.36% | 14.36% | 14.36% | 14.36% | 14.36% |
EBIAT | 2,059.43 | 2,229.13 | 884.85 | 2,086.15 | -644.72 | 2,135.82 | 2,385.09 | 2,663.45 | 2,974.30 | 3,321.44 |
Depreciation | 1,691.39 | 1,676.12 | 1,645.37 | 1,737.93 | 2,389.81 | 2,752.64 | 3,073.90 | 3,432.66 | 3,833.28 | 4,280.67 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -198.43 | -275.15 | -2,161.90 | 535.53 | -235.73 | -436.31 | -487.23 | -544.10 | -607.60 |
Inventories | - | 27.81 | -12.78 | -0.34 | -8.25 | -2.86 | -3.20 | -3.57 | -3.99 | -4.45 |
Accounts Payable | - | -62.36 | -1.68 | 709.81 | -390.51 | 277.21 | 127.13 | 141.97 | 158.54 | 177.04 |
Capital Expenditure | -5,948.41 | -4,728.49 | -1,183.72 | -1,789.78 | -3,871.57 | -5,266.86 | -5,881.56 | -6,568 | -7,334.55 | -8,190.57 |
UFCF | -2,197.59 | -1,056.22 | 1,056.90 | 581.86 | -1,989.71 | -339.78 | -734.95 | -820.72 | -916.51 | -1,023.48 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -323.20 | -664.97 | -706.34 | -750.29 | -796.97 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -3,241.78 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.13 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,043.94 |
Terminal Value | -33,352.86 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -25,971.66 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -29,213.45 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 45,071.03 |
Equity Value | -74,284.48 |
Shares Outstanding | 149.01 |
Equity Value Per Share | -498.53 |