Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)

$59.07

+0.95 (+1.63%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -498.53 | 59.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,799.98	4,937.34	4,493.63	4,588.93	6,914.99	7,722.03	8,623.27	9,629.70	10,753.58	12,008.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4,025.17	4,284.55	2,577.80	4,131.44	1,499.67	5,246.66	5,859	6,542.80	7,306.41	8,159.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,333.78	2,608.43	932.43	2,393.51	-890.14	2,494.02	2,785.09	3,110.14	3,473.13	3,878.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,691.39	1,676.12	1,645.37	1,737.93	2,389.81	2,752.64	3,073.90	3,432.66	3,833.28	4,280.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,204.02	1,121.40	1,248.77	1,728.79	1,597.15	2,105.89	2,351.67	2,626.14	2,932.63	3,274.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,402.74	1,601.17	1,876.33	4,038.23	3,502.70	3,738.42	4,174.74	4,661.97	5,206.07	5,813.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	30.97	3.16	15.93	16.27	24.52	27.38	30.58	34.15	38.13	42.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	556.81	494.46	492.78	1,202.59	812.08	1,089.29	1,216.42	1,358.39	1,516.92	1,693.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-5,948.41	-4,728.49	-1,183.73	-1,789.78	-3,871.57	-5,266.86	-5,881.56	-6,568	-7,334.55	-8,190.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 59.07
Beta	1.995
Diluted Shares Outstanding	149.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.57
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.109
Total Debt	46,668.18
Total Equity	8,801.78
Total Capital	55,469.96
Debt Weighting	84.13
Equity Weighting	15.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,799.98	4,937.34	4,493.63	4,588.93	6,914.99	7,722.03	8,623.27	9,629.70	10,753.58	12,008.63
EBITDA	4,025.17	4,284.55	2,577.80	4,131.44	1,499.67	5,246.66	5,859	6,542.80	7,306.41	8,159.14
EBIT	2,333.78	2,608.43	932.43	2,393.51	-890.14	2,494.02	2,785.09	3,110.14	3,473.13	3,878.48
Tax Rate	11.76%	14.54%	5.10%	12.84%	27.57%	14.36%	14.36%	14.36%	14.36%	14.36%
EBIAT	2,059.43	2,229.13	884.85	2,086.15	-644.72	2,135.82	2,385.09	2,663.45	2,974.30	3,321.44
Depreciation	1,691.39	1,676.12	1,645.37	1,737.93	2,389.81	2,752.64	3,073.90	3,432.66	3,833.28	4,280.67
Accounts Receivable	-	-198.43	-275.15	-2,161.90	535.53	-235.73	-436.31	-487.23	-544.10	-607.60
Inventories	-	27.81	-12.78	-0.34	-8.25	-2.86	-3.20	-3.57	-3.99	-4.45
Accounts Payable	-	-62.36	-1.68	709.81	-390.51	277.21	127.13	141.97	158.54	177.04
Capital Expenditure	-5,948.41	-4,728.49	-1,183.72	-1,789.78	-3,871.57	-5,266.86	-5,881.56	-6,568	-7,334.55	-8,190.57
UFCF	-2,197.59	-1,056.22	1,056.90	581.86	-1,989.71	-339.78	-734.95	-820.72	-916.51	-1,023.48
WACC
PV UFCF						-323.20	-664.97	-706.34	-750.29	-796.97
SUM PV UFCF										-3,241.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.13
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-1,043.94
Terminal Value	-33,352.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	-25,971.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-29,213.45
Net Debt	45,071.03
Equity Value	-74,284.48
Shares Outstanding	149.01
Equity Value Per Share	-498.53