Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)

$59.07

+0.95 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -498.53 | 59.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,799.984,937.344,493.634,588.936,914.997,722.038,623.279,629.7010,753.5812,008.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,025.174,284.552,577.804,131.441,499.675,246.665,8596,542.807,306.418,159.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,333.782,608.43932.432,393.51-890.142,494.022,785.093,110.143,473.133,878.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,691.391,676.121,645.371,737.932,389.812,752.643,073.903,432.663,833.284,280.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,204.021,121.401,248.771,728.791,597.152,105.892,351.672,626.142,932.633,274.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,402.741,601.171,876.334,038.233,502.703,738.424,174.744,661.975,206.075,813.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 30.973.1615.9316.2724.5227.3830.5834.1538.1342.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 556.81494.46492.781,202.59812.081,089.291,216.421,358.391,516.921,693.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,948.41-4,728.49-1,183.73-1,789.78-3,871.57-5,266.86-5,881.56-6,568-7,334.55-8,190.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.07
Beta 1.995
Diluted Shares Outstanding 149.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.57
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.109
Total Debt 46,668.18
Total Equity 8,801.78
Total Capital 55,469.96
Debt Weighting 84.13
Equity Weighting 15.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,799.984,937.344,493.634,588.936,914.997,722.038,623.279,629.7010,753.5812,008.63
EBITDA 4,025.174,284.552,577.804,131.441,499.675,246.665,8596,542.807,306.418,159.14
EBIT 2,333.782,608.43932.432,393.51-890.142,494.022,785.093,110.143,473.133,878.48
Tax Rate 11.76%14.54%5.10%12.84%27.57%14.36%14.36%14.36%14.36%14.36%
EBIAT 2,059.432,229.13884.852,086.15-644.722,135.822,385.092,663.452,974.303,321.44
Depreciation 1,691.391,676.121,645.371,737.932,389.812,752.643,073.903,432.663,833.284,280.67
Accounts Receivable --198.43-275.15-2,161.90535.53-235.73-436.31-487.23-544.10-607.60
Inventories -27.81-12.78-0.34-8.25-2.86-3.20-3.57-3.99-4.45
Accounts Payable --62.36-1.68709.81-390.51277.21127.13141.97158.54177.04
Capital Expenditure -5,948.41-4,728.49-1,183.72-1,789.78-3,871.57-5,266.86-5,881.56-6,568-7,334.55-8,190.57
UFCF -2,197.59-1,056.221,056.90581.86-1,989.71-339.78-734.95-820.72-916.51-1,023.48
WACC
PV UFCF -323.20-664.97-706.34-750.29-796.97
SUM PV UFCF -3,241.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,043.94
Terminal Value -33,352.86
Present Value of Terminal Value -25,971.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -29,213.45
Net Debt 45,071.03
Equity Value -74,284.48
Shares Outstanding 149.01
Equity Value Per Share -498.53