Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
$46.92
+0.70 (+1.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 988 | 921 | 1,084 | 698 | 723 | 684.84 | 648.70 | 614.46 | 582.03 | 551.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 462 | -509 | -853 | -1,937 | -2,479 | -969.16 | -918.01 | -869.56 | -823.67 | -780.20 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | - | - | - | - | - | -969.16 | -918.01 | -869.56 | -823.67 | -780.20 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 46.92 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.122 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 74.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.69 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.21% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.674 |
| Total Debt | 1,675 |
| Total Equity | 3,486.16 |
| Total Capital | 5,161.16 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.45 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.55 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 988 | 921 | 1,084 | 698 | 723 | 684.84 | 648.70 | 614.46 | 582.03 | 551.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 462 | -509 | -853 | -1,937 | -2,479 | -969.16 | -918.01 | -869.56 | -823.67 | -780.20 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow | - | - | - | - | - | -969.16 | -918.01 | -869.56 | -823.67 | -780.20 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -793.35 | -702.97 | -622.89 | -551.93 | -489.06 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -3,611.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -795.81 |
| Terminal Value | -16,240.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -11,633.82 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -15,245.17 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,616 |
| Equity Value | -16,861.17 |
| Shares Outstanding | 74.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -226.93 |