Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

$10.345

+0.10 (+0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 4.09 | 10.345 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 942.03792.33888.96817.761,124.351,196.841,273.991,356.121,443.551,536.61
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 237.11218.51322.11257.13348.66362.49385.85410.73437.21465.39
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -198.55-207.07-252.45-169.65-213-275.99-293.78-312.72-332.88-354.34
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 38.5611.4469.6687.47135.6686.5092.0798.01104.33111.05

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.345
Beta 1.159
Diluted Shares Outstanding 117.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.11
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.354
Total Debt 1,064.51
Total Equity 1,217.75
Total Capital 2,282.26
Debt Weighting 46.64
Equity Weighting 53.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 942.03792.33888.96817.761,124.351,196.841,273.991,356.121,443.551,536.61
Operating Cash Flow 237.11218.51322.11257.13348.66362.49385.85410.73437.21465.39
Capital Expenditure -198.55-207.07-252.45-169.65-213-275.99-293.78-312.72-332.88-354.34
Free Cash Flow 38.5611.4469.6687.47135.6686.5092.0798.01104.33111.05
WACC
PV LFCF 79.0476.8974.7972.7570.77
SUM PV LFCF 374.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 113.27
Terminal Value 1,524.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 971.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,345.77
Net Debt 864.74
Equity Value 481.03
Shares Outstanding 117.71
Equity Value Per Share 4.09