Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

$11.25

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -18.86 | 11.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	942.03	792.33	888.96	817.76	1,124.35	1,196.84	1,273.99	1,356.12	1,443.55	1,536.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	67.57	-125.92	54.45	266.24	544.36	187.61	199.71	212.58	226.29	240.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-83.44	-280.17	-165.15	83.55	326.24	-56.40	-60.04	-63.91	-68.03	-72.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	151.01	154.25	219.61	182.69	218.13	244.02	259.75	276.49	294.32	313.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	269.20	273.63	290.28	336.28	199.77	370.19	394.06	419.46	446.50	475.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	63.18	77.69	67.04	117.45	145.85	123	130.93	139.37	148.36	157.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	265.64	222.22	229.92	133.46	239.52	286.60	305.08	324.74	345.68	367.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	83.45	94.84	94.19	110.66	168.75	143.53	152.79	162.64	173.12	184.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-198.55	-207.07	-252.45	-169.65	-213	-275.99	-293.78	-312.72	-332.88	-354.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.25
Beta	1.130
Diluted Shares Outstanding	117.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.11
After-tax Cost of Debt	10.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.076
Total Debt	1,064.51
Total Equity	1,324.28
Total Capital	2,388.79
Debt Weighting	44.56
Equity Weighting	55.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	942.03	792.33	888.96	817.76	1,124.35	1,196.84	1,273.99	1,356.12	1,443.55	1,536.61
EBITDA	67.57	-125.92	54.45	266.24	544.36	187.61	199.71	212.58	226.29	240.87
EBIT	-83.44	-280.17	-165.15	83.55	326.24	-56.40	-60.04	-63.91	-68.03	-72.42
Tax Rate	-32.20%	-1.50%	103.65%	96.92%	25.11%	38.40%	38.40%	38.40%	38.40%	38.40%
EBIAT	-110.31	-284.39	6.02	2.57	244.31	-34.75	-36.99	-39.37	-41.91	-44.61
Depreciation	151.01	154.25	219.61	182.69	218.13	244.02	259.75	276.49	294.32	313.29
Accounts Receivable	-	-14.51	10.66	-50.41	-28.40	22.84	-7.93	-8.44	-8.99	-9.56
Inventories	-	43.42	-7.70	96.46	-106.06	-47.08	-18.48	-19.67	-20.94	-22.28
Accounts Payable	-	11.38	-0.65	16.47	58.08	-25.21	9.25	9.85	10.48	11.16
Capital Expenditure	-198.55	-207.07	-252.45	-169.65	-213	-275.99	-293.78	-312.72	-332.88	-354.34
UFCF	-157.86	-296.91	-24.51	78.13	173.05	-116.16	-88.17	-93.86	-99.91	-106.35
WACC
PV UFCF						-106.35	-73.90	-72.02	-70.18	-68.40
SUM PV UFCF										-390.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.23
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-108.48
Terminal Value	-1,500.36
Present Value of Terminal Value	-964.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,355.76
Net Debt	864.74
Equity Value	-2,220.50
Shares Outstanding	117.71
Equity Value Per Share	-18.86