Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

$11.25

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -18.86 | 11.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 942.03792.33888.96817.761,124.351,196.841,273.991,356.121,443.551,536.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 67.57-125.9254.45266.24544.36187.61199.71212.58226.29240.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -83.44-280.17-165.1583.55326.24-56.40-60.04-63.91-68.03-72.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 151.01154.25219.61182.69218.13244.02259.75276.49294.32313.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 269.20273.63290.28336.28199.77370.19394.06419.46446.50475.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 63.1877.6967.04117.45145.85123130.93139.37148.36157.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 265.64222.22229.92133.46239.52286.60305.08324.74345.68367.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 83.4594.8494.19110.66168.75143.53152.79162.64173.12184.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -198.55-207.07-252.45-169.65-213-275.99-293.78-312.72-332.88-354.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.25
Beta 1.130
Diluted Shares Outstanding 117.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.11
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.076
Total Debt 1,064.51
Total Equity 1,324.28
Total Capital 2,388.79
Debt Weighting 44.56
Equity Weighting 55.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 942.03792.33888.96817.761,124.351,196.841,273.991,356.121,443.551,536.61
EBITDA 67.57-125.9254.45266.24544.36187.61199.71212.58226.29240.87
EBIT -83.44-280.17-165.1583.55326.24-56.40-60.04-63.91-68.03-72.42
Tax Rate -32.20%-1.50%103.65%96.92%25.11%38.40%38.40%38.40%38.40%38.40%
EBIAT -110.31-284.396.022.57244.31-34.75-36.99-39.37-41.91-44.61
Depreciation 151.01154.25219.61182.69218.13244.02259.75276.49294.32313.29
Accounts Receivable --14.5110.66-50.41-28.4022.84-7.93-8.44-8.99-9.56
Inventories -43.42-7.7096.46-106.06-47.08-18.48-19.67-20.94-22.28
Accounts Payable -11.38-0.6516.4758.08-25.219.259.8510.4811.16
Capital Expenditure -198.55-207.07-252.45-169.65-213-275.99-293.78-312.72-332.88-354.34
UFCF -157.86-296.91-24.5178.13173.05-116.16-88.17-93.86-99.91-106.35
WACC
PV UFCF -106.35-73.90-72.02-70.18-68.40
SUM PV UFCF -390.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) -108.48
Terminal Value -1,500.36
Present Value of Terminal Value -964.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,355.76
Net Debt 864.74
Equity Value -2,220.50
Shares Outstanding 117.71
Equity Value Per Share -18.86