Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

PlayAGS, Inc. (AGS)

$5.39

+0.31 (+6.10%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -11.62 | 5.39 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	211.96	285.30	304.71	167.01	259.70	293.27	331.19	374.01	422.37	476.97
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	44.01	45.51	87.99	36.17	78.33	68.87	77.77	87.83	99.18	112
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57.48	-66.18	-71.06	-35.71	-36.10	-63.89	-72.15	-81.47	-92.01	-103.90
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-13.47	-20.67	16.92	0.46	42.23	4.98	5.62	6.35	7.17	8.10

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 5.39
Beta	2.315
Diluted Shares Outstanding	35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.87
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.891
Total Debt	618.03
Total Equity	192.09
Total Capital	810.12
Debt Weighting	76.29
Equity Weighting	23.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	211.96	285.30	304.71	167.01	259.70	293.27	331.19	374.01	422.37	476.97
Operating Cash Flow	44.01	45.51	87.99	36.17	78.33	68.87	77.77	87.83	99.18	112
Capital Expenditure	-57.48	-66.18	-71.06	-35.71	-36.10	-63.89	-72.15	-81.47	-92.01	-103.90
Free Cash Flow	-13.47	-20.67	16.92	0.46	42.23	4.98	5.62	6.35	7.17	8.10
WACC
PV LFCF						4.59	4.78	4.97	5.17	5.38
SUM PV LFCF										24.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.52
Free cash flow (t + 1)	8.26
Terminal Value	126.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	84.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	109.08
Net Debt	523.05
Equity Value	-413.97
Shares Outstanding	35.64
Equity Value Per Share	-11.62