Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

PlayAGS, Inc. (AGS)

$5.39

+0.31 (+6.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -11.62 | 5.39 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 211.96285.30304.71167.01259.70293.27331.19374.01422.37476.97
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 44.0145.5187.9936.1778.3368.8777.7787.8399.18112
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.48-66.18-71.06-35.71-36.10-63.89-72.15-81.47-92.01-103.90
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -13.47-20.6716.920.4642.234.985.626.357.178.10

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.39
Beta 2.315
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.891
Total Debt 618.03
Total Equity 192.09
Total Capital 810.12
Debt Weighting 76.29
Equity Weighting 23.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 211.96285.30304.71167.01259.70293.27331.19374.01422.37476.97
Operating Cash Flow 44.0145.5187.9936.1778.3368.8777.7787.8399.18112
Capital Expenditure -57.48-66.18-71.06-35.71-36.10-63.89-72.15-81.47-92.01-103.90
Free Cash Flow -13.47-20.6716.920.4642.234.985.626.357.178.10
WACC
PV LFCF 4.594.784.975.175.38
SUM PV LFCF 24.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8.26
Terminal Value 126.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 84.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 109.08
Net Debt 523.05
Equity Value -413.97
Shares Outstanding 35.64
Equity Value Per Share -11.62