Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PlayAGS, Inc. (AGS)

$7.755

+0.03 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.72 | 7.755 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 211.96285.30304.71167.01259.70293.27331.19374.01422.37476.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 84.8490.47116.9043.8393.52101.10114.17128.93145.60164.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8.528.3819.05-49.3219.58-5.15-5.82-6.57-7.42-8.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 76.3382.0997.8593.1473.94106.25119.98135.50153.01172.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 19.2470.7313.1681.6994.9872.5481.9292.51104.47117.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 32.7844.7061.2241.7449.4355.8763.0971.2580.4690.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 24.4527.4432.8726.9027.5334.4038.8543.8749.5555.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.4114.8215.609.559.4414.6916.5918.7421.1623.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.48-66.18-71.06-35.71-36.10-63.89-72.15-81.47-92.01-103.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.755
Beta 2.544
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.986
Total Debt 618.03
Total Equity 276.38
Total Capital 894.41
Debt Weighting 69.10
Equity Weighting 30.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 211.96285.30304.71167.01259.70293.27331.19374.01422.37476.97
EBITDA 84.8490.47116.9043.8393.52101.10114.17128.93145.60164.42
EBIT 8.528.3819.05-49.3219.58-5.15-5.82-6.57-7.42-8.38
Tax Rate 4.02%28.67%30.75%6.44%8.87%15.75%15.75%15.75%15.75%15.75%
EBIAT 8.175.9813.19-46.1417.84-4.34-4.90-5.54-6.25-7.06
Depreciation 76.3382.0997.8593.1473.94106.25119.98135.50153.01172.80
Accounts Receivable --11.93-16.5219.48-7.68-6.44-7.22-8.16-9.21-10.40
Inventories --2.98-5.445.97-0.63-6.87-4.45-5.02-5.67-6.41
Accounts Payable -3.410.78-6.05-0.115.251.902.152.422.74
Capital Expenditure -57.48-66.18-71.06-35.71-36.10-63.89-72.15-81.47-92.01-103.90
UFCF 27.0310.3918.8030.6947.2629.9633.1637.4542.2947.76
WACC
PV UFCF 27.4527.8428.8029.8030.83
SUM PV UFCF 144.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 48.72
Terminal Value 681.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 439.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 584.50
Net Debt 523.05
Equity Value 61.45
Shares Outstanding 35.64
Equity Value Per Share 1.72