Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PlayAGS, Inc. (AGS)

$7.755

+0.03 (+0.32%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 1.72 | 7.755 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	211.96	285.30	304.71	167.01	259.70	293.27	331.19	374.01	422.37	476.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	84.84	90.47	116.90	43.83	93.52	101.10	114.17	128.93	145.60	164.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	8.52	8.38	19.05	-49.32	19.58	-5.15	-5.82	-6.57	-7.42	-8.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	76.33	82.09	97.85	93.14	73.94	106.25	119.98	135.50	153.01	172.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	19.24	70.73	13.16	81.69	94.98	72.54	81.92	92.51	104.47	117.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	32.78	44.70	61.22	41.74	49.43	55.87	63.09	71.25	80.46	90.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	24.45	27.44	32.87	26.90	27.53	34.40	38.85	43.87	49.55	55.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	11.41	14.82	15.60	9.55	9.44	14.69	16.59	18.74	21.16	23.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57.48	-66.18	-71.06	-35.71	-36.10	-63.89	-72.15	-81.47	-92.01	-103.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 7.755
Beta	2.544
Diluted Shares Outstanding	35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.87
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.986
Total Debt	618.03
Total Equity	276.38
Total Capital	894.41
Debt Weighting	69.10
Equity Weighting	30.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	211.96	285.30	304.71	167.01	259.70	293.27	331.19	374.01	422.37	476.97
EBITDA	84.84	90.47	116.90	43.83	93.52	101.10	114.17	128.93	145.60	164.42
EBIT	8.52	8.38	19.05	-49.32	19.58	-5.15	-5.82	-6.57	-7.42	-8.38
Tax Rate	4.02%	28.67%	30.75%	6.44%	8.87%	15.75%	15.75%	15.75%	15.75%	15.75%
EBIAT	8.17	5.98	13.19	-46.14	17.84	-4.34	-4.90	-5.54	-6.25	-7.06
Depreciation	76.33	82.09	97.85	93.14	73.94	106.25	119.98	135.50	153.01	172.80
Accounts Receivable	-	-11.93	-16.52	19.48	-7.68	-6.44	-7.22	-8.16	-9.21	-10.40
Inventories	-	-2.98	-5.44	5.97	-0.63	-6.87	-4.45	-5.02	-5.67	-6.41
Accounts Payable	-	3.41	0.78	-6.05	-0.11	5.25	1.90	2.15	2.42	2.74
Capital Expenditure	-57.48	-66.18	-71.06	-35.71	-36.10	-63.89	-72.15	-81.47	-92.01	-103.90
UFCF	27.03	10.39	18.80	30.69	47.26	29.96	33.16	37.45	42.29	47.76
WACC
PV UFCF						27.45	27.84	28.80	29.80	30.83
SUM PV UFCF										144.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.15
Free cash flow (t + 1)	48.72
Terminal Value	681.34
Present Value of Terminal Value	439.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	584.50
Net Debt	523.05
Equity Value	61.45
Shares Outstanding	35.64
Equity Value Per Share	1.72