Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

$253.69

+0.52 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 212.31 | 253.69 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 7,1957,003.608,209.408,550.6010,071.9010,991.0811,994.1413,088.7414,283.2415,586.75
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,119.201,752.501,704.102,125.402,031.702,338.132,551.512,784.363,038.473,315.76
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -138.80-99.30-128.60-182.70-193.60-197.23-215.23-234.87-256.31-279.70
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 980.401,653.201,575.501,942.701,838.102,140.892,336.282,549.492,782.163,036.06

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 253.69
Beta 0.684
Diluted Shares Outstanding 219.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.584
Total Debt 8,317.20
Total Equity 55,634.22
Total Capital 63,951.42
Debt Weighting 13.01
Equity Weighting 86.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 7,1957,003.608,209.408,550.6010,071.9010,991.0811,994.1413,088.7414,283.2415,586.75
Operating Cash Flow 1,119.201,752.501,704.102,125.402,031.702,338.132,551.512,784.363,038.473,315.76
Capital Expenditure -138.80-99.30-128.60-182.70-193.60-197.23-215.23-234.87-256.31-279.70
Free Cash Flow 980.401,653.201,575.501,942.701,838.102,140.892,336.282,549.492,782.163,036.06
WACC
PV LFCF 1,999.712,038.312,077.642,117.742,158.61
SUM PV LFCF 10,392.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,096.78
Terminal Value 61,201.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,513.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 53,905.53
Net Debt 7,345.70
Equity Value 46,559.83
Shares Outstanding 219.30
Equity Value Per Share 212.31