Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
$203.965
-1.38 (-0.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,119.70 | 7,009.40 | 8,190.50 | 8,550.60 | 9,112.02 | 9,710.30 | 10,347.87 | 11,027.29 | 11,751.33 | 12,522.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,119.20 | 1,752.50 | 1,704.10 | 2,125.40 | 1,967.84 | 2,097.05 | 2,234.74 | 2,381.47 | 2,537.83 | 2,704.46 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -161.12 | -171.70 | -182.98 | -194.99 | -207.79 | -221.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 980.40 | 1,653.20 | 1,575.50 | 1,942.70 | 1,806.72 | 1,925.35 | 2,051.76 | 2,186.48 | 2,330.04 | 2,483.02 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 203.965 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.701 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 207.35 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.04 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.20% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.101 |
| Total Debt | 986.40 |
| Total Equity | 42,291.33 |
| Total Capital | 43,277.73 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,119.70 | 7,009.40 | 8,190.50 | 8,550.60 | 9,112.02 | 9,710.30 | 10,347.87 | 11,027.29 | 11,751.33 | 12,522.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,119.20 | 1,752.50 | 1,704.10 | 2,125.40 | 1,967.84 | 2,097.05 | 2,234.74 | 2,381.47 | 2,537.83 | 2,704.46 |
| Capital Expenditure | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -161.12 | -171.70 | -182.98 | -194.99 | -207.79 | -221.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 980.40 | 1,653.20 | 1,575.50 | 1,942.70 | 1,806.72 | 1,925.35 | 2,051.76 | 2,186.48 | 2,330.04 | 2,483.02 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,806.72 | 1,798.88 | 1,791.08 | 1,783.32 | 1,775.58 | 1,767.88 | ||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 8,916.75 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,532.68 |
| Terminal Value | 50,351.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 35,849.70 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 44,766.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -563.50 |
| Equity Value | 45,329.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | 207.35 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 218.62 |