Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
$230.33
-0.60 (-0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,934 | 7,195 | 7,003.60 | 8,209.40 | 8,550.60 | 9,031.08 | 9,538.56 | 10,074.55 | 10,640.66 | 11,238.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,056 | 1,310.90 | 1,563.90 | 2,039.10 | 2,349.50 | 1,952.43 | 2,062.14 | 2,178.02 | 2,300.41 | 2,429.67 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 637 | 836.50 | 1,001.50 | 1,472.80 | 1,749.90 | 1,327.90 | 1,402.51 | 1,481.33 | 1,564.56 | 1,652.48 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 419 | 474.40 | 562.40 | 566.30 | 599.60 | 624.53 | 659.63 | 696.69 | 735.84 | 777.19 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 607.20 | 604.80 | 664.60 | 402.60 | 342.30 | 642.28 | 678.37 | 716.49 | 756.75 | 799.28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 4,857.50 | 5,419.20 | 6,436 | 11,753.10 | 16,408.90 | 10,337.66 | 10,918.55 | 11,532.09 | 12,180.11 | 12,864.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,629.60 | 2,019.10 | 2,909.70 | 4,063.70 | 4,621.90 | 3,552.18 | 3,751.78 | 3,962.60 | 4,185.27 | 4,420.45 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 5,740.20 | 6,348.50 | 7,784.60 | 13,845.60 | 18,698.20 | 12,092.65 | 12,772.17 | 13,489.87 | 14,247.89 | 15,048.52 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -124.40 | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -159.75 | -168.72 | -178.20 | -188.22 | -198.79 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 230.33 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.696 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 207.35 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 16.04 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -3.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.913 |
Total Debt | 6,415.10 |
Total Equity | 47,758 |
Total Capital | 54,173.10 |
Debt Weighting | 11.84 |
Equity Weighting | 88.16 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,934 | 7,195 | 7,003.60 | 8,209.40 | 8,550.60 | 9,031.08 | 9,538.56 | 10,074.55 | 10,640.66 | 11,238.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,056 | 1,310.90 | 1,563.90 | 2,039.10 | 2,349.50 | 1,952.43 | 2,062.14 | 2,178.02 | 2,300.41 | 2,429.67 |
EBIT | 637 | 836.50 | 1,001.50 | 1,472.80 | 1,749.90 | 1,327.90 | 1,402.51 | 1,481.33 | 1,564.56 | 1,652.48 |
Tax Rate | -32.14% | -6.82% | 5.98% | 7.00% | 16.04% | -1.99% | -1.99% | -1.99% | -1.99% | -1.99% |
EBIAT | 841.76 | 893.55 | 941.59 | 1,369.64 | 1,469.28 | 1,354.30 | 1,430.40 | 1,510.78 | 1,595.67 | 1,685.34 |
Depreciation | 419 | 474.40 | 562.40 | 566.30 | 599.60 | 624.53 | 659.63 | 696.69 | 735.84 | 777.19 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -561.70 | -1,016.80 | -5,317.10 | -4,655.80 | 6,071.24 | -580.90 | -613.54 | -648.02 | -684.43 |
Inventories | - | -389.50 | -890.60 | -1,154 | -558.20 | 1,069.72 | -199.61 | -210.82 | -222.67 | -235.18 |
Accounts Payable | - | 608.30 | 1,436.10 | 6,061 | 4,852.60 | -6,605.55 | 679.51 | 717.70 | 758.03 | 800.62 |
Capital Expenditure | -124.40 | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -159.75 | -168.72 | -178.20 | -188.22 | -198.79 |
UFCF | 1,136.36 | 886.25 | 933.39 | 1,397.24 | 1,524.78 | 2,354.51 | 1,820.32 | 1,922.61 | 2,030.64 | 2,144.75 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,209.15 | 1,602.49 | 1,588.05 | 1,573.73 | 1,559.54 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 8,532.96 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.58 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,187.64 |
Terminal Value | 47,765.14 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 34,732.21 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 43,265.17 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 6,072.80 |
Equity Value | 37,192.37 |
Shares Outstanding | 207.35 |
Equity Value Per Share | 179.37 |