Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
$206.09
+0.41 (+0.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 7,119.70 | 7,009.40 | 8,190.50 | 8,550.60 | 9,112.02 | 9,710.30 | 10,347.87 | 11,027.29 | 11,751.33 | 12,522.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,233.30 | 1,590.40 | 1,719.30 | 1,667.90 | 1,834.01 | 1,954.43 | 2,082.75 | 2,219.50 | 2,365.23 | 2,520.53 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 758.90 | 1,028 | 1,153 | 1,068.30 | 1,182.20 | 1,259.82 | 1,342.54 | 1,430.69 | 1,524.63 | 1,624.73 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 474.40 | 562.40 | 566.30 | 599.60 | 651.81 | 694.61 | 740.21 | 788.82 | 840.61 | 895.80 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 604.80 | 664.60 | 402.60 | 342.30 | 1,549.90 | 852.65 | 908.63 | 968.29 | 1,031.87 | 1,099.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 5,891.70 | 6,893.10 | 12,393 | 16,408.90 | 3,526.50 | 10,933.94 | 11,651.85 | 12,416.90 | 13,232.17 | 14,100.98 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 6,348.50 | 7,784.60 | 13,845.60 | 18,698.20 | 13,393.51 | 14,272.91 | 15,210.05 | 16,208.72 | 17,272.96 | 18,407.08 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -161.12 | -171.70 | -182.98 | -194.99 | -207.79 | -221.44 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 206.09 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.701 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 207.35 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 16.04 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.20% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.051 |
Total Debt | 986.40 |
Total Equity | 42,731.94 |
Total Capital | 43,718.34 |
Debt Weighting | 2.26 |
Equity Weighting | 97.74 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 7,119.70 | 7,009.40 | 8,190.50 | 8,550.60 | 9,112.02 | 9,710.30 | 10,347.87 | 11,027.29 | 11,751.33 | 12,522.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,233.30 | 1,590.40 | 1,719.30 | 1,667.90 | 1,834.01 | 1,954.43 | 2,082.75 | 2,219.50 | 2,365.23 | 2,520.53 |
EBIT | 758.90 | 1,028 | 1,153 | 1,068.30 | 1,182.20 | 1,259.82 | 1,342.54 | 1,430.69 | 1,524.63 | 1,624.73 |
Tax Rate | -6.82% | 5.98% | 7.00% | 16.04% | 5.55% | 5.55% | 5.55% | 5.55% | 5.55% | 5.55% |
EBIAT | 810.66 | 966.50 | 1,072.24 | 896.99 | 1,116.58 | 1,189.89 | 1,268.02 | 1,351.28 | 1,440 | 1,534.55 |
Depreciation | 474.40 | 562.40 | 566.30 | 599.60 | 651.81 | 694.61 | 740.21 | 788.82 | 840.61 | 895.80 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1,001.40 | -5,499.90 | -4,015.90 | 12,882.40 | -7,407.44 | -717.91 | -765.04 | -815.28 | -868.81 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,436.10 | 6,061 | 4,852.60 | -5,304.69 | 879.40 | 937.14 | 998.67 | 1,064.24 | 1,134.12 |
Capital Expenditure | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -161.12 | -171.70 | -182.98 | -194.99 | -207.79 | -221.44 |
UFCF | 1,146.26 | 1,864.30 | 2,071.04 | 2,150.59 | 9,184.98 | -4,815.25 | 2,044.49 | 2,178.73 | 2,321.78 | 2,474.22 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 9,184.98 | -4,500.65 | 1,786.07 | 1,778.99 | 1,771.94 | 1,764.91 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,601.26 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.99 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,523.71 |
Terminal Value | 50,575.33 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 36,076.36 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 38,677.62 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -563.50 |
Equity Value | 39,241.12 |
Shares Outstanding | 207.35 |
Equity Value Per Share | 189.25 |