Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
$253.69
+0.52 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 7,195 | 7,003.60 | 8,209.40 | 8,550.60 | 10,071.90 | 10,991.08 | 11,994.14 | 13,088.74 | 14,283.24 | 15,586.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,310.90 | 1,563.90 | 2,039.10 | 2,349.50 | 2,555.60 | 2,599.15 | 2,836.36 | 3,095.21 | 3,377.68 | 3,685.93 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 836.50 | 1,001.50 | 1,472.80 | 1,749.90 | 1,859.10 | 1,819.90 | 1,985.99 | 2,167.23 | 2,365.01 | 2,580.85 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 474.40 | 562.40 | 566.30 | 599.60 | 696.50 | 779.26 | 850.37 | 927.98 | 1,012.67 | 1,105.08 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 604.80 | 664.60 | 402.60 | 342.30 | 971.50 | 801.21 | 874.33 | 954.12 | 1,041.20 | 1,136.22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 5,419.20 | 6,436 | 11,753.10 | 16,408.90 | 3,786.60 | 11,867.73 | 12,950.80 | 14,132.71 | 15,422.48 | 16,829.96 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,019.10 | 2,909.70 | 4,063.70 | 4,621.90 | 27,077 | 9,716.10 | 10,602.81 | 11,570.44 | 12,626.37 | 13,778.67 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 6,348.50 | 7,784.60 | 13,845.60 | 18,698.20 | 2,553.10 | 13,454.56 | 14,682.45 | 16,022.39 | 17,484.62 | 19,080.29 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -193.60 | -197.23 | -215.23 | -234.87 | -256.31 | -279.70 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 253.69 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.684 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 219.30 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.56% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.584 |
Total Debt | 8,317.20 |
Total Equity | 55,634.22 |
Total Capital | 63,951.42 |
Debt Weighting | 13.01 |
Equity Weighting | 86.99 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 7,195 | 7,003.60 | 8,209.40 | 8,550.60 | 10,071.90 | 10,991.08 | 11,994.14 | 13,088.74 | 14,283.24 | 15,586.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,310.90 | 1,563.90 | 2,039.10 | 2,349.50 | 2,555.60 | 2,599.15 | 2,836.36 | 3,095.21 | 3,377.68 | 3,685.93 |
EBIT | 836.50 | 1,001.50 | 1,472.80 | 1,749.90 | 1,859.10 | 1,819.90 | 1,985.99 | 2,167.23 | 2,365.01 | 2,580.85 |
Tax Rate | -6.82% | 5.98% | 7.00% | 16.04% | 18.19% | 8.08% | 8.08% | 8.08% | 8.08% | 8.08% |
EBIAT | 893.55 | 941.59 | 1,369.64 | 1,469.28 | 1,520.88 | 1,672.87 | 1,825.54 | 1,992.14 | 2,173.94 | 2,372.34 |
Depreciation | 474.40 | 562.40 | 566.30 | 599.60 | 696.50 | 779.26 | 850.37 | 927.98 | 1,012.67 | 1,105.08 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1,016.80 | -5,317.10 | -4,655.80 | 12,622.30 | -8,081.13 | -1,083.07 | -1,181.91 | -1,289.77 | -1,407.48 |
Inventories | - | -890.60 | -1,154 | -558.20 | -22,455.10 | 17,360.90 | -886.71 | -967.63 | -1,055.94 | -1,152.30 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,436.10 | 6,061 | 4,852.60 | -16,145.10 | 10,901.46 | 1,227.88 | 1,339.94 | 1,462.23 | 1,595.67 |
Capital Expenditure | -138.80 | -99.30 | -128.60 | -182.70 | -193.60 | -197.23 | -215.23 | -234.87 | -256.31 | -279.70 |
UFCF | 1,229.15 | 933.39 | 1,397.24 | 1,524.78 | -23,954.12 | 22,436.13 | 1,718.79 | 1,875.65 | 2,046.82 | 2,233.62 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 20,956.59 | 1,499.57 | 1,528.51 | 1,558.01 | 1,588.08 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 27,130.77 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.06 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,278.29 |
Terminal Value | 45,025.50 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 32,012.70 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 59,143.47 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,345.70 |
Equity Value | 51,797.77 |
Shares Outstanding | 219.30 |
Equity Value Per Share | 236.20 |