Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)

$116.57

-3.87 (-3.21%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 22.03 | 116.57 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	190.07	256.01	310.06	359.37	471.88	593.41	746.24	938.43	1,180.11	1,484.03
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	36.27	38.89	48.30	35.39	25.36	77.23	97.12	122.13	153.58	193.14
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-14.41	-29.08	-45.08	-32.72	-21.23	-55.88	-70.27	-88.36	-111.12	-139.74
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	21.86	9.80	3.22	2.67	4.14	21.35	26.85	33.77	42.46	53.40

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 116.57
Beta	0.974
Diluted Shares Outstanding	35.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-2.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.097
Total Debt	50.24
Total Equity	4,081.12
Total Capital	4,131.35
Debt Weighting	1.22
Equity Weighting	98.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	190.07	256.01	310.06	359.37	471.88	593.41	746.24	938.43	1,180.11	1,484.03
Operating Cash Flow	36.27	38.89	48.30	35.39	25.36	77.23	97.12	122.13	153.58	193.14
Capital Expenditure	-14.41	-29.08	-45.08	-32.72	-21.23	-55.88	-70.27	-88.36	-111.12	-139.74
Free Cash Flow	21.86	9.80	3.22	2.67	4.14	21.35	26.85	33.77	42.46	53.40
WACC
PV LFCF						19.76	23.01	26.78	31.18	36.29
SUM PV LFCF										137.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.03
Free cash flow (t + 1)	54.47
Terminal Value	903.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	613.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	750.90
Net Debt	-20.53
Equity Value	771.43
Shares Outstanding	35.01
Equity Value Per Share	22.03