Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)
$120.44
+2.46 (+2.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 190.07 | 256.01 | 310.06 | 359.37 | 471.88 | 593.41 | 746.24 | 938.43 | 1,180.11 | 1,484.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 34.96 | 31.35 | 227.32 | 33.97 | -31.53 | 126.67 | 159.29 | 200.31 | 251.90 | 316.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 20.39 | 4.82 | 196.83 | 1.73 | -65.53 | 74.40 | 93.56 | 117.65 | 147.96 | 186.06 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.58 | 26.52 | 30.49 | 32.23 | 34.01 | 52.27 | 65.73 | 82.65 | 103.94 | 130.71 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 90.71 | 38.69 | 168.52 | 122.45 | 160.07 | 219.78 | 276.38 | 347.55 | 437.06 | 549.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.52 | 7.56 | 10.06 | 12.59 | 16.50 | 19.11 | 24.03 | 30.22 | 38 | 47.79 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.48 | 1.93 | 1.04 | 1.70 | 2.47 | 3.40 | 4.28 | 5.38 | 6.76 | 8.51 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.41 | -29.08 | -45.08 | -32.72 | -21.23 | -55.88 | -70.27 | -88.36 | -111.12 | -139.74 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 120.44 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.974 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 35.01 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -2.10 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.36% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.203 |
| Total Debt | 50.24 |
| Total Equity | 4,216.60 |
| Total Capital | 4,266.84 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 190.07 | 256.01 | 310.06 | 359.37 | 471.88 | 593.41 | 746.24 | 938.43 | 1,180.11 | 1,484.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 34.96 | 31.35 | 227.32 | 33.97 | -31.53 | 126.67 | 159.29 | 200.31 | 251.90 | 316.77 |
| EBIT | 20.39 | 4.82 | 196.83 | 1.73 | -65.53 | 74.40 | 93.56 | 117.65 | 147.96 | 186.06 |
| Tax Rate | 2.06% | -652.27% | 19.52% | 40.72% | -2.10% | -118.41% | -118.41% | -118.41% | -118.41% | -118.41% |
| EBIAT | 19.97 | 36.28 | 158.40 | 1.03 | -66.91 | 162.50 | 204.35 | 256.97 | 323.16 | 406.38 |
| Depreciation | 14.58 | 26.52 | 30.49 | 32.23 | 34.01 | 52.27 | 65.73 | 82.65 | 103.94 | 130.71 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.05 | -2.50 | -2.54 | -3.91 | -2.61 | -4.92 | -6.19 | -7.78 | -9.79 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.45 | -0.89 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1.10 | 1.39 | 1.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.41 | -29.08 | -45.08 | -32.72 | -21.23 | -55.88 | -70.27 | -88.36 | -111.12 | -139.74 |
| UFCF | 20.14 | 32.13 | 140.43 | -1.33 | -57.27 | 157.21 | 195.76 | 246.18 | 309.58 | 389.31 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 145.39 | 167.43 | 194.72 | 226.46 | 263.37 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 997.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.13 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 397.09 |
| Terminal Value | 6,477.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,382.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,379.66 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -20.53 |
| Equity Value | 5,400.19 |
| Shares Outstanding | 35.01 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 154.25 |