Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)
$142.83
+2.33 (+1.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 190.07 | 256.01 | 310.06 | 359.37 | 471.88 | 593.41 | 746.24 | 938.43 | 1,180.11 | 1,484.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 34.96 | 31.35 | 227.32 | 33.97 | -31.53 | 126.67 | 159.29 | 200.31 | 251.90 | 316.77 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 20.39 | 4.82 | 196.83 | 1.73 | -65.53 | 74.40 | 93.56 | 117.65 | 147.96 | 186.06 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 14.58 | 26.52 | 30.49 | 32.23 | 34.01 | 52.27 | 65.73 | 82.65 | 103.94 | 130.71 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 90.71 | 38.69 | 168.52 | 122.45 | 160.07 | 219.78 | 276.38 | 347.55 | 437.06 | 549.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 5.52 | 7.56 | 10.06 | 12.59 | 16.50 | 19.11 | 24.03 | 30.22 | 38 | 47.79 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1.48 | 1.93 | 1.04 | 1.70 | 2.47 | 3.40 | 4.28 | 5.38 | 6.76 | 8.51 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -14.41 | -29.08 | -45.08 | -32.72 | -21.23 | -55.88 | -70.27 | -88.36 | -111.12 | -139.74 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 142.83 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.971 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 35.01 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -2.10 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.394 |
Total Debt | 50.24 |
Total Equity | 5,000.48 |
Total Capital | 5,050.72 |
Debt Weighting | 0.99 |
Equity Weighting | 99.01 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 190.07 | 256.01 | 310.06 | 359.37 | 471.88 | 593.41 | 746.24 | 938.43 | 1,180.11 | 1,484.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 34.96 | 31.35 | 227.32 | 33.97 | -31.53 | 126.67 | 159.29 | 200.31 | 251.90 | 316.77 |
EBIT | 20.39 | 4.82 | 196.83 | 1.73 | -65.53 | 74.40 | 93.56 | 117.65 | 147.96 | 186.06 |
Tax Rate | 2.06% | -652.27% | 19.52% | 40.72% | -2.10% | -118.41% | -118.41% | -118.41% | -118.41% | -118.41% |
EBIAT | 19.97 | 36.28 | 158.40 | 1.03 | -66.91 | 162.50 | 204.35 | 256.97 | 323.16 | 406.38 |
Depreciation | 14.58 | 26.52 | 30.49 | 32.23 | 34.01 | 52.27 | 65.73 | 82.65 | 103.94 | 130.71 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -2.05 | -2.50 | -2.54 | -3.91 | -2.61 | -4.92 | -6.19 | -7.78 | -9.79 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.45 | -0.89 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1.10 | 1.39 | 1.74 |
Capital Expenditure | -14.41 | -29.08 | -45.08 | -32.72 | -21.23 | -55.88 | -70.27 | -88.36 | -111.12 | -139.74 |
UFCF | 20.14 | 32.13 | 140.43 | -1.33 | -57.27 | 157.21 | 195.76 | 246.18 | 309.58 | 389.31 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 145.12 | 166.81 | 193.64 | 224.79 | 260.95 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 991.31 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.33 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 397.09 |
Terminal Value | 6,273.20 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,204.80 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 5,196.11 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -20.53 |
Equity Value | 5,216.65 |
Shares Outstanding | 35.01 |
Equity Value Per Share | 149.00 |