Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)

$120.44

+2.46 (+2.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 154.25 | 120.44 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 190.07256.01310.06359.37471.88593.41746.24938.431,180.111,484.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 34.9631.35227.3233.97-31.53126.67159.29200.31251.90316.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 20.394.82196.831.73-65.5374.4093.56117.65147.96186.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.5826.5230.4932.2334.0152.2765.7382.65103.94130.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 90.7138.69168.52122.45160.07219.78276.38347.55437.06549.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.527.5610.0612.5916.5019.1124.0330.223847.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.481.931.041.702.473.404.285.386.768.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.41-29.08-45.08-32.72-21.23-55.88-70.27-88.36-111.12-139.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 120.44
Beta 0.974
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.203
Total Debt 50.24
Total Equity 4,216.60
Total Capital 4,266.84
Debt Weighting 1.18
Equity Weighting 98.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 190.07256.01310.06359.37471.88593.41746.24938.431,180.111,484.03
EBITDA 34.9631.35227.3233.97-31.53126.67159.29200.31251.90316.77
EBIT 20.394.82196.831.73-65.5374.4093.56117.65147.96186.06
Tax Rate 2.06%-652.27%19.52%40.72%-2.10%-118.41%-118.41%-118.41%-118.41%-118.41%
EBIAT 19.9736.28158.401.03-66.91162.50204.35256.97323.16406.38
Depreciation 14.5826.5230.4932.2334.0152.2765.7382.65103.94130.71
Accounts Receivable --2.05-2.50-2.54-3.91-2.61-4.92-6.19-7.78-9.79
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.45-0.890.660.770.930.881.101.391.74
Capital Expenditure -14.41-29.08-45.08-32.72-21.23-55.88-70.27-88.36-111.12-139.74
UFCF 20.1432.13140.43-1.33-57.27157.21195.76246.18309.58389.31
WACC
PV UFCF 145.39167.43194.72226.46263.37
SUM PV UFCF 997.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 397.09
Terminal Value 6,477.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,382.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,379.66
Net Debt -20.53
Equity Value 5,400.19
Shares Outstanding 35.01
Equity Value Per Share 154.25