Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
$30.53
+0.20 (+0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,656 | 4,140 | 4,409 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 6,912.07 | 8,250.51 | 9,848.13 | 11,755.11 | 14,031.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,006.29 | 2,081.99 | 1,103.46 | 735.64 | 1,660.12 | 2,525.89 | 3,015 | 3,598.83 | 4,295.70 | 5,127.51 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -934.77 | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -696.19 | -831 | -991.91 | -1,183.99 | -1,413.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,071.52 | 1,359.97 | 935.42 | 687.55 | 1,545.36 | 1,829.70 | 2,184.01 | 2,606.91 | 3,111.71 | 3,714.26 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.643 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 272.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.69% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 21.000 |
| Total Debt | 5,545.91 |
| Total Equity | 8,317.38 |
| Total Capital | 13,863.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 40.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,656 | 4,140 | 4,409 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 6,912.07 | 8,250.51 | 9,848.13 | 11,755.11 | 14,031.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,006.29 | 2,081.99 | 1,103.46 | 735.64 | 1,660.12 | 2,525.89 | 3,015 | 3,598.83 | 4,295.70 | 5,127.51 |
| Capital Expenditure | -934.77 | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -696.19 | -831 | -991.91 | -1,183.99 | -1,413.25 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,071.52 | 1,359.97 | 935.42 | 687.55 | 1,545.36 | 1,829.70 | 2,184.01 | 2,606.91 | 3,111.71 | 3,714.26 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,609.66 | 1,690.29 | 1,774.96 | 1,863.87 | 1,957.23 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 8,896.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.67 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,788.54 |
| Terminal Value | 32,463.95 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 17,106.93 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 26,002.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,545.91 |
| Equity Value | 20,457.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | 272.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 75.09 |