Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
$32.27
+1.53 (+4.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,656 | 4,140 | 4,409 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 6,912.07 | 8,250.51 | 9,848.13 | 11,755.11 | 14,031.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,006.29 | 2,081.99 | 1,103.46 | 735.64 | 1,660.12 | 2,525.89 | 3,015 | 3,598.83 | 4,295.70 | 5,127.51 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -934.77 | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -696.19 | -831 | -991.91 | -1,183.99 | -1,413.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,071.52 | 1,359.97 | 935.42 | 687.55 | 1,545.36 | 1,829.70 | 2,184.01 | 2,606.91 | 3,111.71 | 3,714.26 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 32.27 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.729 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 272.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.69% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 20.726 |
| Total Debt | 5,545.91 |
| Total Equity | 8,791.41 |
| Total Capital | 14,337.32 |
| Debt Weighting | 38.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 61.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,656 | 4,140 | 4,409 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 6,912.07 | 8,250.51 | 9,848.13 | 11,755.11 | 14,031.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,006.29 | 2,081.99 | 1,103.46 | 735.64 | 1,660.12 | 2,525.89 | 3,015 | 3,598.83 | 4,295.70 | 5,127.51 |
| Capital Expenditure | -934.77 | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -696.19 | -831 | -991.91 | -1,183.99 | -1,413.25 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,071.52 | 1,359.97 | 935.42 | 687.55 | 1,545.36 | 1,829.70 | 2,184.01 | 2,606.91 | 3,111.71 | 3,714.26 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,608.53 | 1,687.92 | 1,771.22 | 1,858.63 | 1,950.36 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 8,876.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.75 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,788.54 |
| Terminal Value | 32,242.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,930.79 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 25,807.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,545.91 |
| Equity Value | 20,261.55 |
| Shares Outstanding | 272.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 74.37 |