Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

$30.74

+0.09 (+0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -86.68 | 30.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,6564,1404,4093,083.905,790.766,912.078,250.519,848.1311,755.1114,031.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 588.65-240.11-186-600.22666.72-25.81-30.81-36.77-43.89-52.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 588.65-240.11-186-1,465.51-958.07-1,965.22-2,345.76-2,799.99-3,342.17-3,989.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---865.291,624.791,939.412,314.952,763.223,298.283,936.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 28.4432.2134.3023.9945.0553.7764.1876.6191.45109.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 335.02525.90489.31453.77670.44819.17977.791,167.131,393.131,662.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 62.9866.29112.3896.59101.06148.61177.39211.73252.73301.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -934.77-722.01-168.04-48.09-114.76-696.19-831-991.91-1,183.99-1,413.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.74
Beta 3.729
Diluted Shares Outstanding 272.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.490
Total Debt 5,545.91
Total Equity 8,374.59
Total Capital 13,920.50
Debt Weighting 39.84
Equity Weighting 60.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,6564,1404,4093,083.905,790.766,912.078,250.519,848.1311,755.1114,031.35
EBITDA 588.65-240.11-186-600.22666.72-25.81-30.81-36.77-43.89-52.39
EBIT 588.65-240.11-186-1,465.51-958.07-1,965.22-2,345.76-2,799.99-3,342.17-3,989.35
Tax Rate -25.51%-127.43%7.36%23.52%18.09%-20.79%-20.79%-20.79%-20.79%-20.79%
EBIAT 738.82-546.09-172.32-1,120.77-784.72-2,373.84-2,833.51-3,382.19-4,037.11-4,818.85
Depreciation ---865.291,624.791,939.412,314.952,763.223,298.283,936.96
Accounts Receivable --190.8836.6035.53-216.67-148.73-158.62-189.34-226-269.76
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -3.3146.09-15.794.4747.5528.7834.354148.94
Capital Expenditure -934.77-722.01-168.04-48.09-114.76-696.19-831-991.91-1,183.99-1,413.25
UFCF -195.95-1,455.68-257.67-283.83513.11-1,231.80-1,479.40-1,765.87-2,107.81-2,515.97
WACC
PV UFCF -1,086.24-1,150.43-1,210.93-1,274.62-1,341.65
SUM PV UFCF -6,063.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,566.28
Terminal Value -22,511.27
Present Value of Terminal Value -12,004.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -18,068.11
Net Debt 5,545.91
Equity Value -23,614.02
Shares Outstanding 272.43
Equity Value Per Share -86.68