Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

$24.05

-0.91 (-3.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 31.01 | 24.05 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,652.893,648.353,083.905,790.768,294.7510,688.1813,772.2317,746.1822,866.7929,464.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,618.73779.600.432,821.815,122.433,766.104,852.806,253.078,057.3810,382.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -588.14-751.37-2,481.101,081.864,437.20-961.34-1,238.73-1,596.17-2,056.74-2,650.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,206.871,530.972,481.531,739.94685.234,727.446,091.547,849.2410,114.1113,032.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash --2,889-2,614.81-3,420.46-3,446.49-7,070.05-9,110.09-11,738.79-15,125.99-19,490.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 525.90489.31453.77670.44743.171,347.991,736.952,238.152,883.963,716.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -3,311.852,719.943,421.223,448.397,471.799,627.7612,405.8315,985.5020,598.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 66.29112.3896.59101.06158.25249.68321.72414.55534.17688.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -722.01-168.04-48.09-114.76-163.32-638.76-823.07-1,060.57-1,366.59-1,760.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.05
Beta 3.500
Diluted Shares Outstanding 329.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.998
Total Debt 4,629.97
Total Equity 7,917.81
Total Capital 12,547.78
Debt Weighting 36.90
Equity Weighting 63.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,652.893,648.353,083.905,790.768,294.7510,688.1813,772.2317,746.1822,866.7929,464.96
EBITDA 1,618.73779.600.432,821.815,122.433,766.104,852.806,253.078,057.3810,382.31
EBIT -588.14-751.37-2,481.101,081.864,437.20-961.34-1,238.73-1,596.17-2,056.74-2,650.20
Tax Rate -127.73%20.18%23.98%32.46%23.27%-5.57%-5.57%-5.57%-5.57%-5.57%
EBIAT -1,339.36-599.74-1,886.26730.653,404.59-1,014.86-1,307.70-1,685.03-2,171.25-2,797.75
Depreciation 2,206.871,530.972,481.531,739.94685.234,727.446,091.547,849.2410,114.1113,032.52
Accounts Receivable -36.5935.53-216.67-72.73-604.82-388.96-501.19-645.81-832.16
Inventories --591.91-701.28-27.17-4,023.40-2,155.97-2,778.07-3,579.67-4,612.58
Accounts Payable -46.09-15.794.4757.1991.4372.0492.83119.62154.13
Capital Expenditure -722.01-168.04-48.09-114.76-163.32-638.76-823.07-1,060.57-1,366.59-1,760.92
UFCF 145.50845.881,158.841,442.363,883.79-1,462.981,487.881,917.202,470.413,183.24
WACC
PV UFCF -1,283.091,144.471,293.381,461.651,651.83
SUM PV UFCF 4,268.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,246.90
Terminal Value 27,012.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 14,017.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 18,285.39
Net Debt 8,076.46
Equity Value 10,208.94
Shares Outstanding 329.22
Equity Value Per Share 31.01