Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
$30.74
+0.09 (+0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,656 | 4,140 | 4,409 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 6,912.07 | 8,250.51 | 9,848.13 | 11,755.11 | 14,031.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 588.65 | -240.11 | -186 | -600.22 | 666.72 | -25.81 | -30.81 | -36.77 | -43.89 | -52.39 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 588.65 | -240.11 | -186 | -1,465.51 | -958.07 | -1,965.22 | -2,345.76 | -2,799.99 | -3,342.17 | -3,989.35 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | 865.29 | 1,624.79 | 1,939.41 | 2,314.95 | 2,763.22 | 3,298.28 | 3,936.96 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 28.44 | 32.21 | 34.30 | 23.99 | 45.05 | 53.77 | 64.18 | 76.61 | 91.45 | 109.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 335.02 | 525.90 | 489.31 | 453.77 | 670.44 | 819.17 | 977.79 | 1,167.13 | 1,393.13 | 1,662.89 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 62.98 | 66.29 | 112.38 | 96.59 | 101.06 | 148.61 | 177.39 | 211.73 | 252.73 | 301.67 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -934.77 | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -696.19 | -831 | -991.91 | -1,183.99 | -1,413.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.74 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.729 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 272.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.69% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 20.490 |
| Total Debt | 5,545.91 |
| Total Equity | 8,374.59 |
| Total Capital | 13,920.50 |
| Debt Weighting | 39.84 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.16 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,656 | 4,140 | 4,409 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 6,912.07 | 8,250.51 | 9,848.13 | 11,755.11 | 14,031.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 588.65 | -240.11 | -186 | -600.22 | 666.72 | -25.81 | -30.81 | -36.77 | -43.89 | -52.39 |
| EBIT | 588.65 | -240.11 | -186 | -1,465.51 | -958.07 | -1,965.22 | -2,345.76 | -2,799.99 | -3,342.17 | -3,989.35 |
| Tax Rate | -25.51% | -127.43% | 7.36% | 23.52% | 18.09% | -20.79% | -20.79% | -20.79% | -20.79% | -20.79% |
| EBIAT | 738.82 | -546.09 | -172.32 | -1,120.77 | -784.72 | -2,373.84 | -2,833.51 | -3,382.19 | -4,037.11 | -4,818.85 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | 865.29 | 1,624.79 | 1,939.41 | 2,314.95 | 2,763.22 | 3,298.28 | 3,936.96 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -190.88 | 36.60 | 35.53 | -216.67 | -148.73 | -158.62 | -189.34 | -226 | -269.76 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.31 | 46.09 | -15.79 | 4.47 | 47.55 | 28.78 | 34.35 | 41 | 48.94 |
| Capital Expenditure | -934.77 | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -696.19 | -831 | -991.91 | -1,183.99 | -1,413.25 |
| UFCF | -195.95 | -1,455.68 | -257.67 | -283.83 | 513.11 | -1,231.80 | -1,479.40 | -1,765.87 | -2,107.81 | -2,515.97 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,086.24 | -1,150.43 | -1,210.93 | -1,274.62 | -1,341.65 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -6,063.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,566.28 |
| Terminal Value | -22,511.27 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -12,004.24 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -18,068.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,545.91 |
| Equity Value | -23,614.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 272.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -86.68 |