Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Ardagh Group S.A. (ARD)

$24.75

+0.63 (+2.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1.11 | 24.75 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	6,673.05	9,170.53	9,097	6,660	6,731	6,914.45	7,102.89	7,296.48	7,495.33	7,699.61
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	493.25	1,000.55	855	839	692	699.46	718.52	738.10	758.22	778.88
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-338.65	-529.07	-587	-508	-544	-456.44	-468.88	-481.66	-494.79	-508.27
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	154.60	471.48	268	331	148	243.01	249.64	256.44	263.43	270.61

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 24.75
Beta	1.223
Diluted Shares Outstanding	236.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-52.17
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.328
Total Debt	6,578
Total Equity	5,850.90
Total Capital	12,428.90
Debt Weighting	52.93
Equity Weighting	47.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	6,673.05	9,170.53	9,097	6,660	6,731	6,914.45	7,102.89	7,296.48	7,495.33	7,699.61
Operating Cash Flow	493.25	1,000.55	855	839	692	699.46	718.52	738.10	758.22	778.88
Capital Expenditure	-338.65	-529.07	-587	-508	-544	-456.44	-468.88	-481.66	-494.79	-508.27
Free Cash Flow	154.60	471.48	268	331	148	243.01	249.64	256.44	263.43	270.61
WACC
PV LFCF						227.26	218.33	209.74	201.50	193.57
SUM PV LFCF										1,050.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.93
Free cash flow (t + 1)	276.02
Terminal Value	5,598.79
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,004.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	5,055.35
Net Debt	5,317
Equity Value	-261.65
Shares Outstanding	236.40
Equity Value Per Share	-1.11