Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ardagh Group S.A. (ARD)

$24.75

+0.63 (+2.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 693.69 | 24.75 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	6,673.05	9,170.53	9,097	6,660	6,731	6,914.45	7,102.89	7,296.48	7,495.33	7,699.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,012.79	1,256.09	1,130	2,579	1,049	1,322.10	1,358.13	1,395.15	1,433.17	1,472.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	496.40	523.07	416	1,927	361	719.28	738.88	759.02	779.71	800.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	516.39	733.02	714	652	688	602.82	619.25	636.13	653.47	671.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	783.52	771.41	520	609	1,261	743.27	763.53	784.34	805.72	827.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,193.68	1,274.08	1,213	885	1,008	1,014.75	1,042.41	1,070.82	1,100	1,129.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,184.22	1,353.26	1,284	964	923	1,034.47	1,062.66	1,091.62	1,121.37	1,151.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,109.55	1,469.64	1,517	1,166	1,137	1,157.87	1,189.43	1,221.84	1,255.14	1,289.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-338.65	-529.07	-587	-508	-544	-456.44	-468.88	-481.66	-494.79	-508.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 24.75
Beta	1.223
Diluted Shares Outstanding	236.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-52.17
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.220
Total Debt	6,578
Total Equity	5,850.90
Total Capital	12,428.90
Debt Weighting	52.93
Equity Weighting	47.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	6,673.05	9,170.53	9,097	6,660	6,731	6,914.45	7,102.89	7,296.48	7,495.33	7,699.61
EBITDA	1,012.79	1,256.09	1,130	2,579	1,049	1,322.10	1,358.13	1,395.15	1,433.17	1,472.23
EBIT	496.40	523.07	416	1,927	361	719.28	738.88	759.02	779.71	800.96
Tax Rate	-5,400.00%	-184.21%	-88.00%	707.50%	-52.17%	-1,003.38%	-1,003.38%	-1,003.38%	-1,003.38%	-1,003.38%
EBIAT	27,302.17	1,486.62	782.08	-11,706.52	549.35	7,936.37	8,152.67	8,374.86	8,603.11	8,837.58
Depreciation	516.39	733.02	714	652	688	602.82	619.25	636.13	653.47	671.27
Accounts Receivable	-	-80.40	61.08	328	-123	-6.75	-27.66	-28.41	-29.18	-29.98
Inventories	-	-169.05	69.26	320	41	-111.47	-28.19	-28.96	-29.75	-30.56
Accounts Payable	-	360.09	47.36	-351	-29	20.87	31.56	32.42	33.30	34.21
Capital Expenditure	-338.65	-529.07	-587	-508	-544	-456.44	-468.88	-481.66	-494.79	-508.27
UFCF	27,479.91	1,801.21	1,086.79	-11,265.52	582.35	7,985.40	8,278.75	8,504.38	8,736.16	8,974.25
WACC
PV UFCF						7,471.37	7,247.22	6,965.51	6,694.75	6,434.52
SUM PV UFCF										34,813.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.88
Free cash flow (t + 1)	9,153.74
Terminal Value	187,576.56
Present Value of Terminal Value	134,491.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	169,305.34
Net Debt	5,317
Equity Value	163,988.34
Shares Outstanding	236.40
Equity Value Per Share	693.69