Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)

$10.43

+0.05 (+0.48%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -6.94 | 10.43 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	299.45	315	210.58	278.31	65.12	53.34	43.68	35.78	29.30	24
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	265.96	273.43	164.05	199.38	267.71	78.54	64.32	52.68	43.15	35.34
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-	-0.13	-33.04	-13.54	-11.09	-9.08	-7.44	-6.09
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	265.96	273.43	164.05	199.25	234.67	65	53.23	43.60	35.71	29.25

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 10.43
Beta	1.665
Diluted Shares Outstanding	165.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	102.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	-0.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.401
Total Debt	2,298.28
Total Equity	1,726.21
Total Capital	4,024.49
Debt Weighting	57.11
Equity Weighting	42.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	299.45	315	210.58	278.31	65.12	53.34	43.68	35.78	29.30	24
Operating Cash Flow	265.96	273.43	164.05	199.38	267.71	78.54	64.32	52.68	43.15	35.34
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-	-0.13	-33.04	-13.54	-11.09	-9.08	-7.44	-6.09
Free Cash Flow	265.96	273.43	164.05	199.25	234.67	65	53.23	43.60	35.71	29.25
WACC
PV LFCF						61.80	48.12	37.47	29.18	22.72
SUM PV LFCF										199.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.18
Free cash flow (t + 1)	29.83
Terminal Value	938.10
Present Value of Terminal Value	728.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	928.04
Net Debt	2,076.25
Equity Value	-1,148.21
Shares Outstanding	165.50
Equity Value Per Share	-6.94