Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)

$10.43

+0.05 (+0.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -6.94 | 10.43 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 299.45315210.58278.3165.1253.3443.6835.7829.3024
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 265.96273.43164.05199.38267.7178.5464.3252.6843.1535.34
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure ----0.13-33.04-13.54-11.09-9.08-7.44-6.09
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 265.96273.43164.05199.25234.676553.2343.6035.7129.25

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.43
Beta 1.665
Diluted Shares Outstanding 165.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 102.00
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.401
Total Debt 2,298.28
Total Equity 1,726.21
Total Capital 4,024.49
Debt Weighting 57.11
Equity Weighting 42.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 299.45315210.58278.3165.1253.3443.6835.7829.3024
Operating Cash Flow 265.96273.43164.05199.38267.7178.5464.3252.6843.1535.34
Capital Expenditure ----0.13-33.04-13.54-11.09-9.08-7.44-6.09
Free Cash Flow 265.96273.43164.05199.25234.676553.2343.6035.7129.25
WACC
PV LFCF 61.8048.1237.4729.1822.72
SUM PV LFCF 199.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 29.83
Terminal Value 938.10
Present Value of Terminal Value 728.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 928.04
Net Debt 2,076.25
Equity Value -1,148.21
Shares Outstanding 165.50
Equity Value Per Share -6.94