Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)
$10.43
+0.05 (+0.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.31 | 65.12 | 53.34 | 43.68 | 35.78 | 29.30 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.38 | 267.71 | 78.54 | 64.32 | 52.68 | 43.15 | 35.34 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | -0.13 | -33.04 | -13.54 | -11.09 | -9.08 | -7.44 | -6.09 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.25 | 234.67 | 65 | 53.23 | 43.60 | 35.71 | 29.25 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 10.43 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.665 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 165.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 102.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.23% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.401 |
Total Debt | 2,298.28 |
Total Equity | 1,726.21 |
Total Capital | 4,024.49 |
Debt Weighting | 57.11 |
Equity Weighting | 42.89 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.31 | 65.12 | 53.34 | 43.68 | 35.78 | 29.30 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.38 | 267.71 | 78.54 | 64.32 | 52.68 | 43.15 | 35.34 |
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | -0.13 | -33.04 | -13.54 | -11.09 | -9.08 | -7.44 | -6.09 |
Free Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.25 | 234.67 | 65 | 53.23 | 43.60 | 35.71 | 29.25 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 61.80 | 48.12 | 37.47 | 29.18 | 22.72 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 199.28 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.18 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 29.83 |
Terminal Value | 938.10 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 728.76 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 928.04 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,076.25 |
Equity Value | -1,148.21 |
Shares Outstanding | 165.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | -6.94 |