Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)
$10.5
-0.21 (-1.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.31 | 65.12 | 53.34 | 43.68 | 35.78 | 29.30 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 334.58 | 230.17 | 18.38 | 226.16 | 473.22 | 106.83 | 87.49 | 71.66 | 58.69 | 48.07 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 387.67 | 299.82 | 67.26 | 223.51 | 472.52 | 113.34 | 92.83 | 76.03 | 62.27 | 51 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | -53.08 | -69.64 | -48.88 | 2.64 | 0.70 | -6.51 | -5.33 | -4.37 | -3.58 | -2.93 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 109.81 | 452.28 | 325.50 | 343.11 | 222.03 | 85.24 | 69.81 | 57.18 | 46.83 | 38.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 33.40 | 35.58 | 40.56 | 41.22 | 65.38 | 16.74 | 13.71 | 11.23 | 9.20 | 7.53 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 104.75 | 100.71 | 18.75 | 25.25 | 31.19 | 14.17 | 11.60 | 9.50 | 7.78 | 6.38 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | -0.13 | -33.04 | -13.54 | -11.09 | -9.08 | -7.44 | -6.09 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 10.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.665 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 165.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 102.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.23% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.335 |
| Total Debt | 2,298.28 |
| Total Equity | 1,737.80 |
| Total Capital | 4,036.08 |
| Debt Weighting | 56.94 |
| Equity Weighting | 43.06 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.31 | 65.12 | 53.34 | 43.68 | 35.78 | 29.30 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 334.58 | 230.17 | 18.38 | 226.16 | 473.22 | 106.83 | 87.49 | 71.66 | 58.69 | 48.07 |
| EBIT | 387.67 | 299.82 | 67.26 | 223.51 | 472.52 | 113.34 | 92.83 | 76.03 | 62.27 | 51 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 102.00% | 20.40% | 20.40% | 20.40% | 20.40% | 20.40% |
| EBIAT | 387.67 | 299.82 | 67.26 | 223.51 | -9.43 | 90.22 | 73.89 | 60.52 | 49.57 | 40.60 |
| Depreciation | -53.08 | -69.64 | -48.88 | 2.64 | 0.70 | -6.51 | -5.33 | -4.37 | -3.58 | -2.93 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.18 | -4.98 | -0.66 | -24.16 | 48.64 | 3.03 | 2.48 | 2.03 | 1.66 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4.03 | -81.96 | 6.50 | 5.94 | -17.02 | -2.56 | -2.10 | -1.72 | -1.41 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | -0.13 | -33.03 | -13.54 | -11.09 | -9.08 | -7.44 | -6.09 |
| UFCF | 334.58 | 223.96 | -68.56 | 231.86 | -59.98 | 101.79 | 57.93 | 47.45 | 38.86 | 31.83 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 96.78 | 52.37 | 40.78 | 31.75 | 24.73 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 246.40 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.18 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 32.47 |
| Terminal Value | 1,020.93 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 793.10 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,039.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,076.25 |
| Equity Value | -1,036.74 |
| Shares Outstanding | 165.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -6.26 |