Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

$123.85

-3.04 (-2.40%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 32.22 | 123.85 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	314.27	367.30	394.91	445.73	540.54	619.63	710.29	814.22	933.36	1,069.93
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	19.26	25.10	86.53	-9.62	11.40	43.16	49.47	56.71	65.01	74.52
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-8.90	-11.22	-11.26	-22.29	-14.87	-20.43	-23.42	-26.85	-30.78	-35.28
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	10.36	13.88	75.27	-31.91	-3.47	22.72	26.05	29.86	34.23	39.24

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 123.85
Beta	0.447
Diluted Shares Outstanding	25.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	7.78
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.220
Total Debt	162.82
Total Equity	3,101.81
Total Capital	3,264.63
Debt Weighting	4.99
Equity Weighting	95.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	314.27	367.30	394.91	445.73	540.54	619.63	710.29	814.22	933.36	1,069.93
Operating Cash Flow	19.26	25.10	86.53	-9.62	11.40	43.16	49.47	56.71	65.01	74.52
Capital Expenditure	-8.90	-11.22	-11.26	-22.29	-14.87	-20.43	-23.42	-26.85	-30.78	-35.28
Free Cash Flow	10.36	13.88	75.27	-31.91	-3.47	22.72	26.05	29.86	34.23	39.24
WACC
PV LFCF						15.87	17.13	18.50	19.97	21.56
SUM PV LFCF										125.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.17
Free cash flow (t + 1)	40.02
Terminal Value	959.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	711.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	836.92
Net Debt	29.96
Equity Value	806.96
Shares Outstanding	25.04
Equity Value Per Share	32.22