Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

$90.17

-0.42 (-0.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 21.68 | 90.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 271.05314.27367.30394.91445.73505.02572.19648.30734.53832.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 36.2359.7556.8143.7551.7171.2380.7191.44103.60117.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 30.2452.0846.9224.49-9.1245.1151.1157.9165.6174.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.987.679.8919.2660.8226.1229.6033.5337.9943.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 257.17323.20302.65180.71101.95352.25399.10452.19512.33580.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 69.8984.92149.50134.28164.81166.13188.23213.27241.64273.78
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 38.6454.0645.5471.6590.6383.1594.22106.75120.95137.03
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 21.3415.9719.8624.8419.2429.2633.1537.5642.5648.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.56-8.90-11.22-11.26-22.29-17.44-19.76-22.39-25.37-28.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 90.17
Beta 0.497
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 78.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.185
Total Debt 216.57
Total Equity 2,225.89
Total Capital 2,442.47
Debt Weighting 8.87
Equity Weighting 91.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 271.05314.27367.30394.91445.73505.02572.19648.30734.53832.23
EBITDA 36.2359.7556.8143.7551.7171.2380.7191.44103.60117.38
EBIT 30.2452.0846.9224.49-9.1245.1151.1157.9165.6174.34
Tax Rate 40.66%6.02%22.02%32.11%78.12%35.79%35.79%35.79%35.79%35.79%
EBIAT 17.9548.9436.5916.63-1.9928.9732.8237.1842.1347.73
Depreciation 5.987.679.8919.2660.8226.1229.6033.5337.9943.05
Accounts Receivable --15.03-64.5815.22-30.53-1.33-22.10-25.04-28.37-32.14
Inventories --15.428.52-26.11-18.987.47-11.06-12.53-14.20-16.09
Accounts Payable --5.373.894.98-5.6010.023.894.4155.66
Capital Expenditure -9.56-8.90-11.22-11.26-22.29-17.44-19.76-22.39-25.37-28.74
UFCF 14.3711.90-16.9118.71-18.5753.8113.3915.1717.1919.48
WACC
PV UFCF 51.3612.2013.1914.2715.43
SUM PV UFCF 106.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) 19.87
Terminal Value 717.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 568.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 674.55
Net Debt 139.34
Equity Value 535.20
Shares Outstanding 24.69
Equity Value Per Share 21.68