Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN)

$198.14

+9.88 (+5.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 300.68 | 198.14 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 598.35590.18709.38405.301,044.181,392.931,858.172,478.803,306.714,411.15
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 238.31243.26276.1328.96299.21433.96578.91772.261,030.201,374.28
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.57-1.42-2.37-2.77-6.94-6.09-8.12-10.83-14.45-19.27
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 236.75241.84273.7726.19292.27427.88570.79761.431,015.751,355.01

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 198.14
Beta 0.795
Diluted Shares Outstanding 64.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 40.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.908
Total Debt 68.37
Total Equity 12,804
Total Capital 12,872.37
Debt Weighting 0.53
Equity Weighting 99.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 598.35590.18709.38405.301,044.181,392.931,858.172,478.803,306.714,411.15
Operating Cash Flow 238.31243.26276.1328.96299.21433.96578.91772.261,030.201,374.28
Capital Expenditure -1.57-1.42-2.37-2.77-6.94-6.09-8.12-10.83-14.45-19.27
Free Cash Flow 236.75241.84273.7726.19292.27427.88570.79761.431,015.751,355.01
WACC
PV LFCF 396.62490.45606.47749.93927.34
SUM PV LFCF 3,170.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,382.11
Terminal Value 23,505.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,086.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,257.24
Net Debt -172.84
Equity Value 19,430.08
Shares Outstanding 64.62
Equity Value Per Share 300.68