Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN)
$198.14
+9.88 (+5.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 598.35 | 590.18 | 709.38 | 405.30 | 1,044.18 | 1,392.93 | 1,858.17 | 2,478.80 | 3,306.71 | 4,411.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 238.31 | 243.26 | 276.13 | 28.96 | 299.21 | 433.96 | 578.91 | 772.26 | 1,030.20 | 1,374.28 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.57 | -1.42 | -2.37 | -2.77 | -6.94 | -6.09 | -8.12 | -10.83 | -14.45 | -19.27 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.75 | 241.84 | 273.77 | 26.19 | 292.27 | 427.88 | 570.79 | 761.43 | 1,015.75 | 1,355.01 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 198.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.795 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 64.62 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 40.32 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.908 |
| Total Debt | 68.37 |
| Total Equity | 12,804 |
| Total Capital | 12,872.37 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.53 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.47 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 598.35 | 590.18 | 709.38 | 405.30 | 1,044.18 | 1,392.93 | 1,858.17 | 2,478.80 | 3,306.71 | 4,411.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 238.31 | 243.26 | 276.13 | 28.96 | 299.21 | 433.96 | 578.91 | 772.26 | 1,030.20 | 1,374.28 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.57 | -1.42 | -2.37 | -2.77 | -6.94 | -6.09 | -8.12 | -10.83 | -14.45 | -19.27 |
| Free Cash Flow | 236.75 | 241.84 | 273.77 | 26.19 | 292.27 | 427.88 | 570.79 | 761.43 | 1,015.75 | 1,355.01 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 396.62 | 490.45 | 606.47 | 749.93 | 927.34 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,170.81 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.88 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,382.11 |
| Terminal Value | 23,505.23 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,086.43 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 19,257.24 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -172.84 |
| Equity Value | 19,430.08 |
| Shares Outstanding | 64.62 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 300.68 |