Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN)

$198.14

+9.88 (+5.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 238.61 | 198.14 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	598.35	590.18	709.38	405.30	1,044.18	1,392.93	1,858.17	2,478.80	3,306.71	4,411.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	311.92	292.23	402.25	163.38	308.35	635.72	848.05	1,131.30	1,509.15	2,013.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	303.78	282.68	391.99	43.45	-183.06	409.85	546.73	729.34	972.94	1,297.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	8.14	9.55	10.26	119.93	491.42	225.87	301.32	401.95	536.21	715.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	71.93	287.80	379.85	449.73	241.21	691.99	923.12	1,231.44	1,642.74	2,191.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	341.98	344.90	361.11	556.80	552.70	994.03	1,326.04	1,768.93	2,359.75	3,147.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	2.28	14.64	-12.38	11.42	1.70	2.27	3.03	4.05	5.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	5.89	3.99	4.37	21.42	20.30	26.48	35.32	47.12	62.85	83.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1.57	-1.42	-2.37	-2.77	-6.94	-6.09	-8.12	-10.83	-14.45	-19.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 198.14
Beta	0.795
Diluted Shares Outstanding	64.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	40.32
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.908
Total Debt	68.37
Total Equity	12,804
Total Capital	12,872.37
Debt Weighting	0.53
Equity Weighting	99.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	598.35	590.18	709.38	405.30	1,044.18	1,392.93	1,858.17	2,478.80	3,306.71	4,411.15
EBITDA	311.92	292.23	402.25	163.38	308.35	635.72	848.05	1,131.30	1,509.15	2,013.20
EBIT	303.78	282.68	391.99	43.45	-183.06	409.85	546.73	729.34	972.94	1,297.90
Tax Rate	13.34%	16.66%	16.88%	-32.99%	40.32%	10.84%	10.84%	10.84%	10.84%	10.84%
EBIAT	263.25	235.59	325.83	57.79	-109.25	365.41	487.46	650.27	867.46	1,157.19
Depreciation	8.14	9.55	10.26	119.93	491.42	225.87	301.32	401.95	536.21	715.30
Accounts Receivable	-	-2.93	-16.21	-195.69	4.10	-441.33	-332	-442.89	-590.82	-788.15
Inventories	-	-	-12.36	27.02	-23.80	9.72	-0.57	-0.76	-1.01	-1.35
Accounts Payable	-	-1.90	0.38	17.05	-1.12	6.18	8.84	11.80	15.74	20.99
Capital Expenditure	-1.57	-1.42	-2.37	-2.77	-6.94	-6.09	-8.12	-10.83	-14.45	-19.27
UFCF	269.82	238.90	305.53	23.32	354.40	159.77	456.93	609.54	813.12	1,084.71
WACC
PV UFCF						148.10	392.61	485.49	600.33	742.35
SUM PV UFCF										2,368.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.88
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,106.40
Terminal Value	18,816.32
Present Value of Terminal Value	12,877.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	15,246.34
Net Debt	-172.84
Equity Value	15,419.17
Shares Outstanding	64.62
Equity Value Per Share	238.61