Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
$83.65
-0.05 (-0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 40,042.56 | 60,295.04 | 81,553.76 | 114,766.24 | 136,489.92 | 186,134.20 | 253,835.16 | 346,160.40 | 472,066.28 | 643,766.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 20,027.36 | 24,156 | 28,897.12 | 37,085.76 | 22,841.44 | 64,983.34 | 88,619.16 | 120,851.84 | 164,808.21 | 224,752.46 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4,773.76 | -7,942.88 | -7,261.76 | -6,909.60 | -8,531.84 | -17,225.16 | -23,490.32 | -32,034.24 | -43,685.78 | -59,575.22 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 15,253.60 | 16,213.12 | 21,635.36 | 30,176.16 | 14,309.60 | 47,758.18 | 65,128.85 | 88,817.59 | 121,122.43 | 165,177.23 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 83.65 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.630 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,723.38 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -4.53 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.67% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.472 |
Total Debt | 28,255.52 |
Total Equity | 227,810.32 |
Total Capital | 256,065.84 |
Debt Weighting | 11.03 |
Equity Weighting | 88.97 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 40,042.56 | 60,295.04 | 81,553.76 | 114,766.24 | 136,489.92 | 186,134.20 | 253,835.16 | 346,160.40 | 472,066.28 | 643,766.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 20,027.36 | 24,156 | 28,897.12 | 37,085.76 | 22,841.44 | 64,983.34 | 88,619.16 | 120,851.84 | 164,808.21 | 224,752.46 |
Capital Expenditure | -4,773.76 | -7,942.88 | -7,261.76 | -6,909.60 | -8,531.84 | -17,225.16 | -23,490.32 | -32,034.24 | -43,685.78 | -59,575.22 |
Free Cash Flow | 15,253.60 | 16,213.12 | 21,635.36 | 30,176.16 | 14,309.60 | 47,758.18 | 65,128.85 | 88,817.59 | 121,122.43 | 165,177.23 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 44,612.97 | 56,832.93 | 72,400.07 | 92,231.21 | 117,494.31 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 383,571.49 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.05 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 168,480.78 |
Terminal Value | 3,336,253.05 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,373,152.39 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,756,723.87 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -2,128.16 |
Equity Value | 2,758,852.03 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,723.38 |
Equity Value Per Share | 1,013.03 |