Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
$102.18
-1.20 (-1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 40,042.56 | 60,295.04 | 81,553.76 | 114,766.24 | 136,489.92 | 186,134.20 | 253,835.16 | 346,160.40 | 472,066.28 | 643,766.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 17,260.48 | 23,473.44 | 34,816.32 | 37,158.56 | 25,238.40 | 65,368.91 | 89,144.97 | 121,568.89 | 165,786.08 | 226,085.99 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 13,737.28 | 17,540.64 | 28,028 | 29,493.12 | 17,548 | 50,747.86 | 69,205.93 | 94,377.60 | 128,704.73 | 175,517.37 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3,523.20 | 5,932.80 | 6,788.32 | 7,665.44 | 7,690.40 | 14,621.06 | 19,939.04 | 27,191.30 | 37,081.35 | 50,568.62 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 33,633.60 | 32,506.40 | 58,114.40 | 77,351.20 | 72,813.60 | 122,815.82 | 167,486.54 | 228,404.95 | 311,480.67 | 424,772.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 4,295.52 | 5,537.44 | 8,296.96 | 10,253.76 | 13,189.44 | 18,123.02 | 24,714.75 | 33,704.03 | 45,962.90 | 62,680.59 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 725.60 | 1,365.44 | 2,377.44 | 4,457.28 | 4,813.92 | 5,361.63 | 7,311.76 | 9,971.21 | 13,597.95 | 18,543.81 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 6,458.08 | 8,313.28 | 10,747.68 | 15,098.88 | 17,152.80 | 25,618.63 | 34,936.67 | 47,643.88 | 64,972.97 | 88,605.02 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4,773.76 | -7,942.88 | -7,261.76 | -6,909.60 | -8,531.84 | -17,225.16 | -23,490.32 | -32,034.24 | -43,685.78 | -59,575.22 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 102.18 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.630 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,723.38 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -4.53 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.67% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.466 |
Total Debt | 28,255.52 |
Total Equity | 278,274.46 |
Total Capital | 306,529.98 |
Debt Weighting | 9.22 |
Equity Weighting | 90.78 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 40,042.56 | 60,295.04 | 81,553.76 | 114,766.24 | 136,489.92 | 186,134.20 | 253,835.16 | 346,160.40 | 472,066.28 | 643,766.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 17,260.48 | 23,473.44 | 34,816.32 | 37,158.56 | 25,238.40 | 65,368.91 | 89,144.97 | 121,568.89 | 165,786.08 | 226,085.99 |
EBIT | 13,737.28 | 17,540.64 | 28,028 | 29,493.12 | 17,548 | 50,747.86 | 69,205.93 | 94,377.60 | 128,704.73 | 175,517.37 |
Tax Rate | 36.16% | 8.66% | 10.33% | 9.06% | -4.53% | 11.94% | 11.94% | 11.94% | 11.94% | 11.94% |
EBIAT | 8,769.29 | 16,021.21 | 25,133.12 | 26,821.29 | 18,343.33 | 44,690.39 | 60,945.23 | 83,112.31 | 113,342.02 | 154,566.92 |
Depreciation | 3,523.20 | 5,932.80 | 6,788.32 | 7,665.44 | 7,690.40 | 14,621.06 | 19,939.04 | 27,191.30 | 37,081.35 | 50,568.62 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1,241.92 | -2,759.52 | -1,956.80 | -2,935.68 | -4,933.58 | -6,591.73 | -8,989.28 | -12,258.87 | -16,717.68 |
Inventories | - | -639.84 | -1,012 | -2,079.84 | -356.64 | -547.71 | -1,950.14 | -2,659.44 | -3,626.74 | -4,945.86 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,855.20 | 2,434.40 | 4,351.20 | 2,053.92 | 8,465.83 | 9,318.04 | 12,707.21 | 17,329.09 | 23,632.05 |
Capital Expenditure | -4,773.76 | -7,942.88 | -7,261.76 | -6,909.60 | -8,531.84 | -17,225.16 | -23,490.32 | -32,034.24 | -43,685.78 | -59,575.22 |
UFCF | 7,518.73 | 13,984.57 | 23,322.56 | 27,891.69 | 16,263.49 | 45,070.83 | 58,170.13 | 79,327.85 | 108,181.07 | 147,528.82 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 42,141.96 | 50,855.57 | 64,846.02 | 82,685.26 | 105,432.11 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 345,960.92 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.95 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 150,479.39 |
Terminal Value | 3,039,987.77 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,172,540.55 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,518,501.47 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -2,128.16 |
Equity Value | 2,520,629.63 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,723.38 |
Equity Value Per Share | 925.55 |