Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

$102.18

-1.20 (-1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 925.55 | 102.18 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40,042.5660,295.0481,553.76114,766.24136,489.92186,134.20253,835.16346,160.40472,066.28643,766.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17,260.4823,473.4434,816.3237,158.5625,238.4065,368.9189,144.97121,568.89165,786.08226,085.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13,737.2817,540.6428,02829,493.1217,54850,747.8669,205.9394,377.60128,704.73175,517.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,523.205,932.806,788.327,665.447,690.4014,621.0619,939.0427,191.3037,081.3550,568.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 33,633.6032,506.4058,114.4077,351.2072,813.60122,815.82167,486.54228,404.95311,480.67424,772.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,295.525,537.448,296.9610,253.7613,189.4418,123.0224,714.7533,704.0345,962.9062,680.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 725.601,365.442,377.444,457.284,813.925,361.637,311.769,971.2113,597.9518,543.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,458.088,313.2810,747.6815,098.8817,152.8025,618.6334,936.6747,643.8864,972.9788,605.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,773.76-7,942.88-7,261.76-6,909.60-8,531.84-17,225.16-23,490.32-32,034.24-43,685.78-59,575.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 102.18
Beta 0.630
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,723.38
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 11.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.466
Total Debt 28,255.52
Total Equity 278,274.46
Total Capital 306,529.98
Debt Weighting 9.22
Equity Weighting 90.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40,042.5660,295.0481,553.76114,766.24136,489.92186,134.20253,835.16346,160.40472,066.28643,766.80
EBITDA 17,260.4823,473.4434,816.3237,158.5625,238.4065,368.9189,144.97121,568.89165,786.08226,085.99
EBIT 13,737.2817,540.6428,02829,493.1217,54850,747.8669,205.9394,377.60128,704.73175,517.37
Tax Rate 36.16%8.66%10.33%9.06%-4.53%11.94%11.94%11.94%11.94%11.94%
EBIAT 8,769.2916,021.2125,133.1226,821.2918,343.3344,690.3960,945.2383,112.31113,342.02154,566.92
Depreciation 3,523.205,932.806,788.327,665.447,690.4014,621.0619,939.0427,191.3037,081.3550,568.62
Accounts Receivable --1,241.92-2,759.52-1,956.80-2,935.68-4,933.58-6,591.73-8,989.28-12,258.87-16,717.68
Inventories --639.84-1,012-2,079.84-356.64-547.71-1,950.14-2,659.44-3,626.74-4,945.86
Accounts Payable -1,855.202,434.404,351.202,053.928,465.839,318.0412,707.2117,329.0923,632.05
Capital Expenditure -4,773.76-7,942.88-7,261.76-6,909.60-8,531.84-17,225.16-23,490.32-32,034.24-43,685.78-59,575.22
UFCF 7,518.7313,984.5723,322.5627,891.6916,263.4945,070.8358,170.1379,327.85108,181.07147,528.82
WACC
PV UFCF 42,141.9650,855.5764,846.0282,685.26105,432.11
SUM PV UFCF 345,960.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) 150,479.39
Terminal Value 3,039,987.77
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,172,540.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,518,501.47
Net Debt -2,128.16
Equity Value 2,520,629.63
Shares Outstanding 2,723.38
Equity Value Per Share 925.55