Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

China Automotive Systems, Inc. (CAAS)

$3.09

+0.04 (+1.31%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 3.79 | 3.09 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	496.16	431.43	417.64	497.99	502.97	508	513.07	518.20	523.38	528.61
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	12.53	30.29	57.43	28.27	36.43	36.80	37.16	37.54	37.91	38.29
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-25.95	-35.90	-16.57	0.15	-21.99	-22.21	-22.43	-22.66	-22.88	-23.11
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-13.43	-5.61	40.86	28.42	14.44	14.59	14.73	14.88	15.03	15.18

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.09
Beta	2.389
Diluted Shares Outstanding	30.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-31.56
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.099
Total Debt	0.23
Total Equity	95.34
Total Capital	95.57
Debt Weighting	0.24
Equity Weighting	99.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	496.16	431.43	417.64	497.99	502.97	508	513.07	518.20	523.38	528.61
Operating Cash Flow	12.53	30.29	57.43	28.27	36.43	36.80	37.16	37.54	37.91	38.29
Capital Expenditure	-25.95	-35.90	-16.57	0.15	-21.99	-22.21	-22.43	-22.66	-22.88	-23.11
Free Cash Flow	-13.43	-5.61	40.86	28.42	14.44	14.59	14.73	14.88	15.03	15.18
WACC
PV LFCF					14.44	12.79	11.32	10.02	8.87	7.86
SUM PV LFCF										50.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	14.08
Free cash flow (t + 1)	15.48
Terminal Value	128.15
Present Value of Terminal Value	66.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	117.18
Net Debt	0.15
Equity Value	117.03
Shares Outstanding	30.86
Equity Value Per Share	3.79