Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

China Automotive Systems, Inc. (CAAS)

$3.78

-0.33 (-8.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.81 | 3.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 499.06496.16431.43417.64497.99501504.03507.07510.13513.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1.3420.6631.4220.8343.6025.5125.6625.8225.9826.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -14.013.8413.58-1.2216.494.144.164.194.224.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 15.3616.8217.8422.0627.1121.3721.5021.6321.7621.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 94.15103.8982.54107.39133.45111.67112.34113.02113.70114.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 294.07256.34233234.14195.73260.49262.06263.64265.23266.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 79.2288.0282.9388.32116.4997.5798.1698.7599.3599.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 156.37129.09116.74145.08148.34149.23150.13151.04151.95152.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.30-25.95-35.90-16.570.15-23-23.14-23.28-23.42-23.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.78
Beta 2.195
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -31.56
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.057
Total Debt 214.74
Total Equity 116.63
Total Capital 331.37
Debt Weighting 64.80
Equity Weighting 35.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 499.06496.16431.43417.64497.99501504.03507.07510.13513.21
EBITDA 1.3420.6631.4220.8343.6025.5125.6625.8225.9826.13
EBIT -14.013.8413.58-1.2216.494.144.164.194.224.24
Tax Rate 194.95%195.04%-31.75%59.18%-31.56%77.17%77.17%77.17%77.17%77.17%
EBIAT 13.31-3.6517.89-0.5021.700.950.950.960.960.97
Depreciation 15.3616.8217.8422.0627.1121.3721.5021.6321.7621.89
Accounts Receivable -37.7323.34-1.1438.41-64.76-1.57-1.58-1.59-1.60
Inventories --8.805.09-5.39-28.1718.92-0.59-0.59-0.60-0.60
Accounts Payable --27.28-12.3528.343.260.900.900.910.910.92
Capital Expenditure -27.30-25.95-35.90-16.570.15-23-23.14-23.28-23.42-23.57
UFCF 1.37-11.1415.9126.8062.46-45.63-1.95-1.97-1.98-1.99
WACC
PV UFCF -43.30-1.76-1.68-1.60-1.53
SUM PV UFCF -49.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2.03
Terminal Value -60.05
Present Value of Terminal Value -46.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -96.08
Net Debt 83.05
Equity Value -179.13
Shares Outstanding 30.86
Equity Value Per Share -5.81