Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
CareDx, Inc (CDNA)
$7.04
-0.33 (-4.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 321.79 | 466.59 | 676.55 | 980.98 | 1,422.40 | 2,062.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -4.01 | -2.77 | 33.43 | -19.29 | -25.24 | -4.08 | -5.91 | -8.58 | -12.43 | -18.03 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -24.33 | -29.74 | -43.13 | -62.54 | -90.68 | -131.48 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.24 | -6.12 | 23.07 | -39.55 | -49.57 | -33.82 | -49.04 | -71.11 | -103.11 | -149.51 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.04 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.952 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 53.32 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.50 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 9.65% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.092 |
| Total Debt | 39 |
| Total Equity | 375.38 |
| Total Capital | 414.38 |
| Debt Weighting | 9.41 |
| Equity Weighting | 90.59 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 321.79 | 466.59 | 676.55 | 980.98 | 1,422.40 | 2,062.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -4.01 | -2.77 | 33.43 | -19.29 | -25.24 | -4.08 | -5.91 | -8.58 | -12.43 | -18.03 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -24.33 | -29.74 | -43.13 | -62.54 | -90.68 | -131.48 |
| Free Cash Flow | -11.24 | -6.12 | 23.07 | -39.55 | -49.57 | -33.82 | -49.04 | -71.11 | -103.11 | -149.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -20.01 | -26.59 | -35.32 | -46.93 | -62.35 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -296.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.14 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -152.50 |
| Terminal Value | -2,135.83 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,379.26 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,675.35 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -50.92 |
| Equity Value | -1,624.43 |
| Shares Outstanding | 53.32 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -30.46 |