Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CareDx, Inc (CDNA)

$13.18

+0.23 (+1.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -305.18 | 13.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48.3276.57127.07192.19296.40466.73734.951,157.311,822.402,869.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -47.56-40.27-18.42-10.21-20.20-165.82-261.11-411.16-647.44-1,019.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -51.31-44.49-23.95-19.75-32.09-190.65-300.21-472.74-744.41-1,172.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.764.225.529.5411.8924.8439.1161.5896.97152.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 16.9064.6238.22224.70348.49358.37564.33888.631,399.312,203.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.999.7624.0634.6259.7670.99111.78176.02277.17436.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.534.946.0110.0117.1931.4049.4477.86122.60193.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.394.715.519.6513.3425.2339.7262.5598.50155.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.19-7.24-3.35-10.36-20.26-23.05-36.30-57.17-90.02-141.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.18
Beta 1.019
Diluted Shares Outstanding 52.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.340
Total Debt 21.35
Total Equity 694.34
Total Capital 715.69
Debt Weighting 2.98
Equity Weighting 97.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48.3276.57127.07192.19296.40466.73734.951,157.311,822.402,869.69
EBITDA -47.56-40.27-18.42-10.21-20.20-165.82-261.11-411.16-647.44-1,019.51
EBIT -51.31-44.49-23.95-19.75-32.09-190.65-300.21-472.74-744.41-1,172.21
Tax Rate 3.14%3.03%8.26%5.25%4.44%4.82%4.82%4.82%4.82%4.82%
EBIAT -49.70-43.14-21.97-18.71-30.66-181.45-285.73-449.93-708.50-1,115.66
Depreciation 3.764.225.529.5411.8924.8439.1161.5896.97152.70
Accounts Receivable --6.77-14.30-10.57-25.14-11.23-40.79-64.24-101.15-159.29
Inventories -0.59-1.07-4-7.17-14.21-18.04-28.41-44.74-70.46
Accounts Payable -1.320.794.153.6811.8914.5022.8335.9556.61
Capital Expenditure -0.19-7.24-3.35-10.36-20.26-23.05-36.30-57.17-90.02-141.75
UFCF -46.13-51.03-34.37-29.95-67.66-193.22-327.27-515.34-811.50-1,277.85
WACC
PV UFCF -178.53-279.39-406.49-591.42-860.48
SUM PV UFCF -2,316.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,303.40
Terminal Value -20,921.38
Present Value of Terminal Value -14,088.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -16,404.39
Net Debt -327.13
Equity Value -16,077.26
Shares Outstanding 52.68
Equity Value Per Share -305.18