Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CareDx, Inc (CDNA)
$16.02
-0.54 (-3.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 48.32 | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 466.73 | 734.95 | 1,157.31 | 1,822.40 | 2,869.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -47.56 | -40.27 | -18.42 | -10.21 | -20.20 | -165.82 | -261.11 | -411.16 | -647.44 | -1,019.51 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -51.31 | -44.49 | -23.95 | -19.75 | -32.09 | -190.65 | -300.21 | -472.74 | -744.41 | -1,172.21 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3.76 | 4.22 | 5.52 | 9.54 | 11.89 | 24.84 | 39.11 | 61.58 | 96.97 | 152.70 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 16.90 | 64.62 | 38.22 | 224.70 | 348.49 | 358.37 | 564.33 | 888.63 | 1,399.31 | 2,203.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2.99 | 9.76 | 24.06 | 34.62 | 59.76 | 70.99 | 111.78 | 176.02 | 277.17 | 436.46 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5.53 | 4.94 | 6.01 | 10.01 | 17.19 | 31.40 | 49.44 | 77.86 | 122.60 | 193.06 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3.39 | 4.71 | 5.51 | 9.65 | 13.34 | 25.23 | 39.72 | 62.55 | 98.50 | 155.11 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.19 | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -23.05 | -36.30 | -57.17 | -90.02 | -141.75 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 16.02 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.060 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 52.68 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 4.44 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.78% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.641 |
Total Debt | 21.35 |
Total Equity | 843.96 |
Total Capital | 865.31 |
Debt Weighting | 2.47 |
Equity Weighting | 97.53 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 48.32 | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 466.73 | 734.95 | 1,157.31 | 1,822.40 | 2,869.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -47.56 | -40.27 | -18.42 | -10.21 | -20.20 | -165.82 | -261.11 | -411.16 | -647.44 | -1,019.51 |
EBIT | -51.31 | -44.49 | -23.95 | -19.75 | -32.09 | -190.65 | -300.21 | -472.74 | -744.41 | -1,172.21 |
Tax Rate | 3.14% | 3.03% | 8.26% | 5.25% | 4.44% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.82% |
EBIAT | -49.70 | -43.14 | -21.97 | -18.71 | -30.66 | -181.45 | -285.73 | -449.93 | -708.50 | -1,115.66 |
Depreciation | 3.76 | 4.22 | 5.52 | 9.54 | 11.89 | 24.84 | 39.11 | 61.58 | 96.97 | 152.70 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -6.77 | -14.30 | -10.57 | -25.14 | -11.23 | -40.79 | -64.24 | -101.15 | -159.29 |
Inventories | - | 0.59 | -1.07 | -4 | -7.17 | -14.21 | -18.04 | -28.41 | -44.74 | -70.46 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.32 | 0.79 | 4.15 | 3.68 | 11.89 | 14.50 | 22.83 | 35.95 | 56.61 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.19 | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -23.05 | -36.30 | -57.17 | -90.02 | -141.75 |
UFCF | -46.13 | -51.03 | -34.37 | -29.95 | -67.66 | -193.22 | -327.27 | -515.34 | -811.50 | -1,277.85 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -178 | -277.74 | -402.91 | -584.48 | -847.87 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -2,290.99 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.55 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,303.40 |
Terminal Value | -19,899.27 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -13,203.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -15,494.46 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -327.13 |
Equity Value | -15,167.33 |
Shares Outstanding | 52.68 |
Equity Value Per Share | -287.91 |