Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CareDx, Inc (CDNA)
$13.18
+0.23 (+1.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 48.32 | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 466.73 | 734.95 | 1,157.31 | 1,822.40 | 2,869.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -47.56 | -40.27 | -18.42 | -10.21 | -20.20 | -165.82 | -261.11 | -411.16 | -647.44 | -1,019.51 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -51.31 | -44.49 | -23.95 | -19.75 | -32.09 | -190.65 | -300.21 | -472.74 | -744.41 | -1,172.21 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.76 | 4.22 | 5.52 | 9.54 | 11.89 | 24.84 | 39.11 | 61.58 | 96.97 | 152.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 16.90 | 64.62 | 38.22 | 224.70 | 348.49 | 358.37 | 564.33 | 888.63 | 1,399.31 | 2,203.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.99 | 9.76 | 24.06 | 34.62 | 59.76 | 70.99 | 111.78 | 176.02 | 277.17 | 436.46 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5.53 | 4.94 | 6.01 | 10.01 | 17.19 | 31.40 | 49.44 | 77.86 | 122.60 | 193.06 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.39 | 4.71 | 5.51 | 9.65 | 13.34 | 25.23 | 39.72 | 62.55 | 98.50 | 155.11 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.19 | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -23.05 | -36.30 | -57.17 | -90.02 | -141.75 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.18 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.019 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 52.68 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 4.44 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.78% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.340 |
| Total Debt | 21.35 |
| Total Equity | 694.34 |
| Total Capital | 715.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.98 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.02 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 48.32 | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 466.73 | 734.95 | 1,157.31 | 1,822.40 | 2,869.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -47.56 | -40.27 | -18.42 | -10.21 | -20.20 | -165.82 | -261.11 | -411.16 | -647.44 | -1,019.51 |
| EBIT | -51.31 | -44.49 | -23.95 | -19.75 | -32.09 | -190.65 | -300.21 | -472.74 | -744.41 | -1,172.21 |
| Tax Rate | 3.14% | 3.03% | 8.26% | 5.25% | 4.44% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.82% |
| EBIAT | -49.70 | -43.14 | -21.97 | -18.71 | -30.66 | -181.45 | -285.73 | -449.93 | -708.50 | -1,115.66 |
| Depreciation | 3.76 | 4.22 | 5.52 | 9.54 | 11.89 | 24.84 | 39.11 | 61.58 | 96.97 | 152.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6.77 | -14.30 | -10.57 | -25.14 | -11.23 | -40.79 | -64.24 | -101.15 | -159.29 |
| Inventories | - | 0.59 | -1.07 | -4 | -7.17 | -14.21 | -18.04 | -28.41 | -44.74 | -70.46 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.32 | 0.79 | 4.15 | 3.68 | 11.89 | 14.50 | 22.83 | 35.95 | 56.61 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.19 | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -23.05 | -36.30 | -57.17 | -90.02 | -141.75 |
| UFCF | -46.13 | -51.03 | -34.37 | -29.95 | -67.66 | -193.22 | -327.27 | -515.34 | -811.50 | -1,277.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -178.53 | -279.39 | -406.49 | -591.42 | -860.48 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2,316.30 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.23 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,303.40 |
| Terminal Value | -20,921.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -14,088.09 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -16,404.39 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -327.13 |
| Equity Value | -16,077.26 |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.68 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -305.18 |