Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

$2569.48

-10.72 (-0.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 766.04 | 2569.48 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 5,586.375,984.637,547.068,634.659,871.6511,401.1013,167.5015,207.5917,563.7520,284.96
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 721.63663.851,282.081,323.181,783.481,696.231,959.032,262.552,613.093,017.95
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -333.91-373.35-442.47-479.16-560.73-668.29-771.83-891.41-1,029.52-1,189.03
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 387.72290.50839.61844.011,222.751,027.941,187.201,371.131,583.571,828.92

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2,569.48
Beta 1.288
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.18
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.382
Total Debt 4,051.63
Total Equity 71,200.29
Total Capital 75,251.92
Debt Weighting 5.38
Equity Weighting 94.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 5,586.375,984.637,547.068,634.659,871.6511,401.1013,167.5015,207.5917,563.7520,284.96
Operating Cash Flow 721.63663.851,282.081,323.181,783.481,696.231,959.032,262.552,613.093,017.95
Capital Expenditure -333.91-373.35-442.47-479.16-560.73-668.29-771.83-891.41-1,029.52-1,189.03
Free Cash Flow 387.72290.50839.61844.011,222.751,027.941,187.201,371.131,583.571,828.92
WACC
PV LFCF 934.23980.621,029.311,080.421,134.07
SUM PV LFCF 5,158.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,902.07
Terminal Value 31,543.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 19,559.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 24,717.99
Net Debt 3,491.02
Equity Value 21,226.98
Shares Outstanding 27.71
Equity Value Per Share 766.04