Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

$2580.2

-18.23 (-0.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 721.50 | 2580.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 5,586.375,984.637,547.068,634.659,871.6511,401.1013,167.5015,207.5917,563.7520,284.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 866.88774.391,098.181,489.512,027.811,842.432,127.882,457.562,838.323,278.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 490.15351.32843.521,202.681,708.411,3011,502.571,735.372,004.232,314.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 376.73423.07254.66286.83319.39541.43625.31722.20834.09963.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 880.78951.601,076.32899.141,295.451,583.951,829.362,112.792,440.132,818.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 108.25387.28193.66154.62168.50330.01381.14440.19508.39587.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 26.1026.4532.8335.6739.3149.1456.7665.5575.7187.44
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 115.82121.99163.16184.57197.65237.44274.23316.72365.79422.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -333.91-373.35-442.47-479.16-560.73-668.29-771.83-891.41-1,029.52-1,189.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2,580.2
Beta 1.288
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.18
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.330
Total Debt 4,051.63
Total Equity 71,497.34
Total Capital 75,548.97
Debt Weighting 5.36
Equity Weighting 94.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 5,586.375,984.637,547.068,634.659,871.6511,401.1013,167.5015,207.5917,563.7520,284.96
EBITDA 866.88774.391,098.181,489.512,027.811,842.432,127.882,457.562,838.323,278.07
EBIT 490.15351.32843.521,202.681,708.411,3011,502.571,735.372,004.232,314.76
Tax Rate 23.59%-21.10%19.66%23.90%24.18%14.05%14.05%14.05%14.05%14.05%
EBIAT 374.50425.44677.70915.201,295.391,118.251,291.511,491.611,722.711,989.61
Depreciation 376.73423.07254.66286.83319.39541.43625.31722.20834.09963.31
Accounts Receivable --279.03193.6239.04-13.87-161.51-51.13-59.05-68.20-78.77
Inventories --0.35-6.38-2.84-3.64-9.84-7.61-8.79-10.16-11.73
Accounts Payable -6.1741.1721.4113.0839.8036.7942.4949.0756.67
Capital Expenditure -333.91-373.35-442.48-479.16-560.73-668.29-771.83-891.41-1,029.52-1,189.03
UFCF 417.32201.95718.29780.461,049.62859.841,123.041,297.031,497.991,730.07
WACC
PV UFCF 781.81928.47975.011,023.891,075.22
SUM PV UFCF 4,784.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,799.28
Terminal Value 30,088.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 18,699.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 23,483.81
Net Debt 3,491.02
Equity Value 19,992.79
Shares Outstanding 27.71
Equity Value Per Share 721.50