Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

CNFinance Holdings Limited (CNF)

$2.37

-0.02 (-0.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4.79 | 2.37 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 321.15374.26286.69208.4999.5678.0661.2047.9837.6229.50
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 205.86213.23207.86179.13110.3560.9447.7837.4629.3723.03
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.16-2.37-0.71-0.52-0.61-0.43-0.33-0.26-0.21-0.16
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 202.70210.85207.15178.62109.7460.5147.4437.2029.1622.87

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.37
Beta 0.222
Diluted Shares Outstanding 71.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.899
Total Debt 1,289.19
Total Equity 170.13
Total Capital 1,459.31
Debt Weighting 88.34
Equity Weighting 11.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 321.15374.26286.69208.4999.5678.0661.2047.9837.6229.50
Operating Cash Flow 205.86213.23207.86179.13110.3560.9447.7837.4629.3723.03
Capital Expenditure -3.16-2.37-0.71-0.52-0.61-0.43-0.33-0.26-0.21-0.16
Free Cash Flow 202.70210.85207.15178.62109.7460.5147.4437.2029.1622.87
WACC
PV LFCF 56.9041.9530.9222.8016.81
SUM PV LFCF 169.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.35
Free cash flow (t + 1) 23.32
Terminal Value 536.16
Present Value of Terminal Value 394.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 563.48
Net Debt 907.04
Equity Value -343.57
Shares Outstanding 71.78
Equity Value Per Share -4.79