Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CNFinance Holdings Limited (CNF)

$2.535

-0.03 (-1.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4.53 | 2.535 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 321.15374.26286.69208.4999.5678.0661.2047.9837.6229.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 356.70498.26326.68144.01139.7088.6069.4754.4642.7033.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 354.97496.13324.94143.04139.0988.1769.1354.2042.4933.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.732.131.750.970.610.440.340.270.210.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 272.14643.54398.91398.90382.14151.59118.8593.1873.0657.28
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.997.4510.626.012.912.281.791.401.100.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.16-2.37-0.71-0.52-0.61-0.43-0.33-0.26-0.21-0.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.535
Beta 0.151
Diluted Shares Outstanding 71.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.484
Total Debt 1,289.19
Total Equity 181.97
Total Capital 1,471.16
Debt Weighting 87.63
Equity Weighting 12.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 321.15374.26286.69208.4999.5678.0661.2047.9837.6229.50
EBITDA 356.70498.26326.68144.01139.7088.6069.4754.4642.7033.48
EBIT 354.97496.13324.94143.04139.0988.1769.1354.2042.4933.32
Tax Rate 34.13%25.64%25.85%29.41%30.75%29.16%29.16%29.16%29.16%29.16%
EBIAT 233.82368.93240.95100.9896.3262.4648.9738.4030.1023.60
Depreciation 1.732.131.750.970.610.440.340.270.210.16
Accounts Receivable -2.53-3.164.603.100.630.490.390.300.24
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -3.16-2.37-0.71-0.52-0.61-0.43-0.33-0.26-0.21-0.16
UFCF 232.39371.22238.82106.0399.4363.1049.4738.7930.4123.84
WACC
PV UFCF 59.3043.7032.2023.7317.48
SUM PV UFCF 176.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 24.32
Terminal Value 552.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 405.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 581.75
Net Debt 907.04
Equity Value -325.29
Shares Outstanding 71.78
Equity Value Per Share -4.53